.50/$1 NL - all-in with trips?

beanie42 · Jan 24,2006, 01:18 AM

I'm finishing up clearing out a bonus at PokerRoom playing 0.50/1.00 NL.Â* I bought into the table for $70, and after an hour or so I'd worked it up to $100 when the following hand occurred.

BB - Hero - $100
UTG - Villain $200

UTG bets $2.50, called by MP, CO, and button.Â* I have

, so I call from the BB.Â* 5 to the flop, pot is $13.

Flop is

.Â* I lead out with an $8 bet (2/3 pot), UTG cold-calls, everyone else folds.Â* Pot is $29.

Turn is

.Â* I raise to $15 (1/2 pot), UTG instantly raise to $100, which puts me all-in.

My read of UTG is solid.Â* He's showed good cards (some speculative hands, but only got to show-down when he'd hit), and PT shows him as TPA (15% VPIP, PFR .9, PF Aggr infinite).

His read of me is either TAP or possibly TPP.Â* I've only shown good hands, and I have folded a few hands to re-raises when I was the aggressor (I'm a tad tight).Â* Based on his play and some of his chat, I assume he knows what he's doing.Â* From this I extrapolate that he knows I have good cards and that I know he plays good cards, and he also knows I can make big lay-downs.Â*

Something he doesn't know but that was gnawing at me is that I lost $45 with trip 2's to trip 6's on a 6-high rainbow flop yesterday. Then tonight my trip 10's got beaten by trip Q's for another $50, so I'm feeling a little snake-bitten about having a middle set.Â* This hand would be more than double that, and this player seems more solid than the others I donated to.

In the 15 seconds or so I had to think, I went through the range of hands:
AA, KK, AK - possible, but unlikely due to pre-flop betting
Kx diamonds - possible
10-10 - possible, but again unlikely
A2s - possible, and raise would match that (but pushing with it is doubtful unless it's A2 diamonds)
9-10s - matches the pre-flop action, and the push when he hit 2 pair
JQs - matches pre-flop and push with straight

Any comments about the hand, specifically betting, any other likely hands I may be missing (or if my quick-analysis is off), and what my play should be.

DrTyore · Jan 24,2006, 09:45 AM

By my math it looks like you've got $76 bucks left, and the pot (that you can win) is 110 bucks?

So, you're getting 1.5:1 on your money roughly....Â* not great odds.

I can see that raise preflop with JQsuited, 10-10, and maybe AK.

However, I don't like the post flop action for KK, he would not just call with KK I think if there was a draw out there, and he was aggressive. That means to me, he's made a dumb call to the gutshot, but hit it and is now afraid of the diamonds, or he's called hoping you didn't have the K and hit his 10 on the turn. I think the best case scenario for you here, is he may have had something like J-Q diamonds and was calling the $8 into the $21 pot to see if he could catch some outs (though this is a bad play I think).

Â* Again, i wasn't at the table here, so I don't know the fella.Â* I give him credit when he makes a bet of what is essentially $76 at a pot of $44.Â* I think you're beat, and if you've got outs to your boat, you're not getting the odds to make it worthwhile (10 outs for boat / quads, 46 cards left, basically 3.5:1 is needed, and this is assuming he doesn't have 1010).

Mark

Wow... good thing I reviewed this post, I read / wrote as soon as I got up, and realized I made a lot of mistakes.. BBC_Z would have had a field day.

SirWatts · Jan 24,2006, 10:30 AM

I would call under the "I have a set, yay yay yay" line of thinking. I think you will see something strange here, especially as the 2nd diamond makes some weird semi-bluffs possible. Maybe KK once in a while, I"m not sure why you're more worried about him turning a gutshot than having this.

Hork42 · Jan 24,2006, 10:38 AM

I agree with SirWatts. I'd call, most of the time I think you're ahead here.

If we're wrong and he has the higher set, then "nh!" and pull out another $100 bill from your pocket, of which you should have many for making this call repeatedly in the long run.

DrTyore · Jan 24,2006, 11:00 AM

So.... what did beanie do?

Mark

pkrfce9 · Jan 24,2006, 01:06 PM

You mention he is a solid player. Also, he has seen you lay down some hands to re-raises. I'm trying to guess what kind of hand he would have to overbet the pot like this. It seems he wants you out of the pot. Would he do this with a hand he though to be stronger than yours or with a weaker one?

I'm leaning towards call on this one.

Big E · Jan 24,2006, 01:40 PM

What did you do Trevor?

I don't play a lot of NL but his bet seems out of place to me, it looks like he wants to punish drawing hands, I'd call...maybe put him on top pair or 2 pair, maybe KQ, KT, 9T?

STR82ACE · Jan 24,2006, 01:42 PM

I think he hit his straight.

beanie42 · Jan 24,2006, 01:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrTyore

So.... what did beanie do?

Sorry for the delay - busy day.

I couldn't give him trip 10's or K's since his pre-flop was so small and he was only calling after that (ducks maybe).Â* I also didn't give him credit for JQs, since his bet was so large - it screamed "don't call me".Â* I put him on 9-10s which hit 2 pair, or AQd for the flush/gutshot draw.Â* I called, and he flipped over

.Â* The river was

(good thing he didn't have the other hand I read him for

), and I won my largest pot so far ($202, net $104).

The interesting part of this hand is that he seemed genuinely surprised when he saw my hand.Â* He thought he was good, and he intentionally overbet to make it look like a bluff and induce a call.Â* So he was trying to trap me, and I fell for it, it just turns out I had the better hand (I don't know what he thought I had, maybe AK?).Â*

Trying not to be results-oriented, I just wasn't sure if this was a good call (even though I won) since there were a number of likely hands which had me beat.Â* I'm also wondering how I should rate my call considering the fact that he actually was trying to induce a call and I did what he wanted.

westside8 · Jan 24,2006, 01:48 PM

I don't think he hit his straight. As OP indicated, he is a solid player, therefore I dont see him cold-calling to chase a gutshot. Even if he did, unless he's using third level thinking (which I highly doubt at this level), he would be slow playing his straight since you have be betting into him. With such an overbet, and you saying you have lay down a few hands to reraises, I don't doubt he's putting out a semi-bluff with straight and flush possibility on the turn. It looks to me like he wants you out of the pot. Possibly TPTK, maybe QK so he can push you off a draw? I lean towards calling.

BigChrisEl · Jan 24,2006, 02:28 PM

I saw the results but before I posted but my first thought is that he has 2 pair, King-10 or King-9 and is firing out to chase out any flush draws you may have. I was surprised to see he had 10-9 and did such a large raise on the turn because you having K-10 or King-9 suited and calling from the BB is very possible.

What do you think that he though you had? Pocket Pair, King-X?

beanie42 · Jan 24,2006, 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigChrisEl

What do you think that he though you had? Pocket Pair, King-X?

High pair (10's or better) would be reasonable given my betting, however since he called my flop bet with a pair of 9's, I'm assuming he didn't put me on those. My best guess is that he read me for AK.

moose · Jan 24,2006, 03:11 PM

Actually I'm surprised you put him on 910s when his PFR is 0.9%, especially coming from UTG. His PFR seems totally out of line with his stats. How many hands had you tracked him for?

beanie42 · Jan 24,2006, 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moose

Actually I'm surprised you put him on 910s when his PFR is 0.9%, especially coming from UTG.Â* His PFR seems totally out of line with his stats.Â* How many hands had you tracked him for?

Over a hundred hands (2.5 hrs at same table). In hindsight, I'm not sure why I put him on that. At the time, I had 15 seconds so I was cycling through any possible hands he could have and quickly "yea/nea". While there were a number of hands which beat me that were reasonable, non "felt right" considering his play. I guess the main thing that tipped me off is that while he didn't usually raise, his raises were usually "normal" (3-4BB), but this raise was so low (1.5BB) that it didn't feel like a typical play he would make.