Analysis of a strange situation

Monteroy · Sep 28,2004, 04:47 PM

$20 sit and go. 4 people left, prizes for top 3.

Table '2829709 1' Seat #8 is the button
Seat 2: melodie (2300 in chips)
Seat 4: Monteroy (6810 in chips)
Seat 7: stakha (4245 in chips)
Seat 8: Equis (145 in chips)
melodie: posts the ante 25
Monteroy: posts the ante 25
stakha: posts the ante 25
Equis: posts the ante 25
melodie: posts small blind 200
Monteroy: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Monteroy [6h 4c]
stakha: folds
Equis: calls 120 and is all-in
melodie: calls 200
Monteroy: raises 2000 to 2400
melodie: folds
*** FLOP *** [7c Ad Tc]
melodie said, "what a dum play here"
*** TURN *** [7c Ad Tc] [8d]
*** RIVER *** [7c Ad Tc 8d] [8h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Monteroy: shows [6h 4c] (a pair of Eights)
Monteroy collected 560 from side pot
Equis: shows [9s Th] (two pair, Tens and Eights)
Equis collected 460 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***

The other two gave me a very hard time for this play after, though I still think it is valid given my chip position. I knew the sb would fold pre flop unless he had a super premium hand and I would go heads up vs the micro chip guy and even if I lost (which I did) , I would end up ahead for the hand.

They thought it was stupid that I didnt get help eliminating the micro chip person, but as I said after, with 7000 chips I did not care if he was still around with 500 chips. In fact the micro chip guy allowed me to bully the other two for blinds for a bunch of hands.

What do people think of this play in this situation?

Oh, and as an ironic footnote, the following happened shortly after. Stakha was still steaming as this hand happened and I think it is safe to say that he did not play the hand perfectly

Table '2829709 1' Seat #2 is the button
Seat 2: melodie (1750 in chips)
Seat 4: Monteroy (6120 in chips)
Seat 7: stakha (4985 in chips)
Seat 8: Equis (645 in chips)
melodie: posts the ante 50
Monteroy: posts the ante 50
stakha: posts the ante 50
Equis: posts the ante 50
Monteroy: posts small blind 300
stakha: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Monteroy [2c Kc]
Equis said, "heyas lady"
Equis: folds
melodie: folds
Monteroy: calls 300
stakha: checks
*** FLOP *** [Ts Ks Kh]
Monteroy: checks
ladyluck00 [observer] said, "how ya doing today friend"
stakha: bets 1200
Monteroy: raises 1200 to 2400
Equis said, "chips look bad right now"
stakha: calls 1200
*** TURN *** [Ts Ks Kh] [8c]
Monteroy: bets 2400
ladyluck00 [observer] said, "ya see if u can get 3rd"
stakha: calls 1935 and is all-in
*** RIVER *** [Ts Ks Kh 8c] [2d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Monteroy: shows [2c Kc] (a full house, Kings full of Deuces)
stakha: shows [Tc 3s] (two pair, Kings and Tens)
Equis said, "score!"
Monteroy collected 10070 from pot

In the end I did win the sit and go, and the micro chip guy did finish second. Go figure.

Pigga · Sep 28,2004, 07:12 PM

i like and dislike your move here dont get me wrong (im no pro, see my hand histories i've posted) i like it in the sense that ur making money off the pot regardless if u eliminate the shortstack or not

i myself wouldnt be able to push all in with that hand fearing maybe that the other guy might have a marginal-half decent hand that will call and i wouldnt want to double him up as well......

i would probably (if the hand permits) push over the top AJ- and better, pocket 9's and higher.... but i like how u bullied out the other guy to benefit yourself

as the chip leader , its not YOUR responsibilty for elminating every1, who want to coast into the money

Big J · Sep 29,2004, 06:40 AM

Your play and your logic were sound Monteroy...I like the play.

BBC Z · Sep 29,2004, 10:14 AM

Quote:

Your play and your logic were sound Monteroy...I like the play.

J, I think this reply warrents a detailed explaination.

BBC Z · Sep 29,2004, 10:17 AM

Quote:

knew the sb would fold pre flop unless he had a super premium hand

What do you do when the SB calls your crap play with a great hand and you lose your chips?

I agree with everything Pigga said except for the 'like and dislike' part.. Theres no need to risk doubling up a contender so you can play heads up with someone who will bust shortly anyway. Being the table marshall is a great way to finish not 1st.

Monteroy · Sep 29,2004, 10:42 AM

Well, first you have to consider the odds of the sb calling which are slim given there is another person with less then a blinds worth of chips to even play and the biggest cutoff of money is 4th to 3rd.

So, let me ask you, would you risk your 2,000 chips even as a 2-1 favorite. If you lose you win 0. If you fold you are pretty much going to win 3rd place +.

You seem to be focussing primarily on whether being all in with 4 6 is good or not. I am not debating that, nor would I have called an all in from the SB.

I do know that I got about 2000 chips from the 2 other people as I kept shoving all in whenever the micro guy folded.

So to answer your question, if the SB takes the risk and doubles up then I have to struggle with the 5000+ chips I have left

Perhaps even a "bad" play can be good in the right context.

BBC Z · Sep 29,2004, 11:46 AM

Quote:

I do know that I got about 2000 chips from the 2 other people as I kept shoving all in whenever the micro guy folded.

..and when they call you with their great hands, you give them back all those chips plus more.

Quote:

So, let me ask you, would you risk your 2,000 chips even as a 2-1 favorite. If you lose you win 0. If you fold you are pretty much going to win 3rd place +.

Winning a SnG at the risk of finishing in 4th lands up being a good play as long as doubling up gives you a great chance of winning.

Quote:

Perhaps even a "bad" play can be good in the right context.

Pushing in 2000 chips to win 145+blinds with a garbage hand is no example of that theory.

ScottyZ · Sep 29,2004, 12:52 PM

My gut reaction was that I hated this play.

On further consideration, I *really* like it.

In terms of risk-reward, there's nothing unusual going on here. He's betting 2,000 chips to steal 560. That's a considerable overbet, but nothing crazy. People under normal circumstances would raise to 2*Pot (or 1,100 in this case) on a blind steal. What's wrong with overbetting on a steal attempt where you don't want to get called?

Also, he believes that the steal has a very high probability of success due to the fact that the other player in the pot will probably be very averse to playing against the chip leader during this particular hand. It's nothing more than a good steal attempt.

It has already been montioned that a huge chip leader has no incentive to go out of his way to bust the short stack. I might even carry this idea further and propose that a huge chip leader to some degree prefers the ultra-short stack to remain in the tournament. Why? Probably the 2nd and 3rd stacked players are easier to run over with a short stack around since their fear of bubbling out (when they could simply "wait out" the short stack instead) makes them play sub-optimally in terms of stealing or defending blinds themselves.

Nice play.

ScottyZ

sweetjimmi · Sep 29,2004, 01:10 PM

I completely agree with the raise. In No-Limit Hold'em Tourneys when you are on the bubble players often tighten up to point of stupidity. If either of the other players were wanting this pot they wouldn't be trapping they would most definitely be raising. At this point the smaller stacks just want to eliminate the smallest stack while the largest stack would be more than happy to keep the small stack around.

This play works and works often. It works best when you have the others covered but will work even when your even them. On the bubble players with meduim stacks will raise their premium hands because they do not want to fool around with anyone that can take all their chips.

BBC Z · Sep 29,2004, 01:14 PM

Quote:

Nice play.

If he posted the exact same hand history, but instead it was titled 'What did I do wrong?' and it had the SB calling him with AA, theres no way in hell you'd call that a nice play.. You'd post a response along the lines of 'Oh, when the SB Limped, I smelled aces from a mile away'..

It looks like a great play because it worked on that instance. I seriously doubt that it's a great strategy to employ in the long term.

sweetjimmi · Sep 29,2004, 01:42 PM

As Scotty said it was probably a little too much of an overbet but why would the SB risks flat calling their Aces or any other premium hand in this situation?

BBC Z · Sep 29,2004, 01:55 PM

Quote:

As Scotty said it was probably a little too much of an overbet but why would the SB risks flat calling their Aces or any other premium hand in this situation?

To trap the overagressive bettor that the original poster was being. He said he stole about 2000 chips, so I assume his opponents would be looking for trap opportunities.

ScottyZ · Sep 29,2004, 02:01 PM

Quote:

'Oh, when the SB Limped, I smelled aces from a mile away'..

I think that the SB limping here indicates he is thinking something more along the lines of "I want to eliminate the short stack so I'm going to invite the BB to play along for free and hopefully we check it down".

Quote:

It looks like a great play because it worked on that instance. I seriously doubt that it's a great strategy to employ in the long term.

Thinking that the SB is going to wake up with a hand he will call with (e.g. AA) so often in the long run that this steal (2,000 to steal 500) would be unprofitable is a tad on the pessimistic side.

ScottyZ

all_aces · Sep 29,2004, 02:02 PM

I would have checked, and then checked it down. That is based on what I've learned so far about poker.

However, this point:

Quote:

a huge chip leader to some degree prefers the ultra-short stack to remain in the tournament. Why? Probably the 2nd and 3rd stacked players are easier to run over with a short stack around since their fear of bubbling out (when they could simply "wait out" the short stack instead) makes them play sub-optimally in terms of stealing or defending blinds themselves.

is one I haven't considered before. Maybe because the situation just doesn't come up that often... a micro-stack is so micro that you're not worried about busting him out, because he poses little to no threat to you. This is a tough one. Do the benefits of keeping him around (being able to push around 2nd and 3rd place players) outweigh the dangers (having him double up, even just twice, and getting back into the game with 4 players, when it could have been a game of 3, with all of you in the money)?

Hell, I don't know.

Regards,
all_aces

sweetjimmi · Sep 29,2004, 02:33 PM

This play is not for Multi-table bubble but for Sit'N'Go bubbles.

Quote:

is one I haven't considered before. Maybe because the situation just doesn't come up that often

In Sit'N'Goes this often comes up and the chip leader should be taking advantage of it. I do think that the original poster bet too much but said that they would have easily folded if reraised. This is always key when being very aggressive. You must be able to lay a hand down if reraised.

I really don't think that medium stacks will risk having their premium hands busted at this point of a Sit'N'Go (whatif it's the one time the big stack sees a free flop?). Even when they know the chip leader is being over aggressive I cannot see the medium stacks slow playing premium hands (at least I wouldn't not until we're in the money). The medium stacked player's main concern should be to just make the money by eliminating the short stack.

Jamie.