Hand analysis: A re-bluff attempt.

ScottyZ · Mar 29,2005, 01:40 PM

Full 10 player $5-$10 limit cash game online. The BB is very tight from the blinds, and the SB is a habitual bluffer on all streets and will slowplay big hands--pretty close to an "opposite" player. I don't mind either isolating the SB or just taking the blinds.

I have been playing very straightforwardly (as usual) up until this point.

Folded to me on the button. I have T8s. I raise, SB calls and BB folds.

Flop is Q52 rainbow and I have missed with no draw and a backdoor flush draw.

SB bets, I raise, SB 3-bets, I cap it.

Turn is an 8 completing the rainbow. SB checks, I bet, SB raises, I call.

River is a J. SB bets, I call.

Thoughts?

ScottyZ

BBC Z · Mar 29,2005, 01:51 PM

I'd call up support and ask why the BB was allowed to play the hand postflop after he folded preflop

I'm curious with the flop cap with Ten high against a guy that will showdown with you. Any A,K,Q,J,5,2 is ahead of you..

ScottyZ · Mar 29,2005, 01:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BBC Z

I'd call up support and ask why the BB was allowed to play the hand postflop after he folded preflop

Whoops. Thanks, I fixed it up.

Quote:

I'm curious with the flop cap with Ten high against a guy that will showdown with you. Any A,K,Q,J,5,2 is ahead of you..

I wasn't sure he was going to go to a showdown if he hadn't paired (say with the K-high or J-high, or maybe even the A-high), but that's a good point that my overall post-flop play is going to be pretty brutal looking in the cases where the opponent has in fact helped on the flop.

ScottyZ

sweetjimmi · Mar 29,2005, 02:00 PM

Quote:

SB checks, I bet, SB raises, I call.

If he is an opposite player ... something fissshy here. Smells like SB catches two pair or a set on you (most likely two pair).

My guess: 82o.

BBC Z · Mar 29,2005, 02:04 PM

Quote:

I'm wasn't sure he was going to go to a showdown if he hadn't paired (say with the K-high, J-high or maybe even A-high), but that's a good point that my overall post-flop play is going to be pretty brutal looking in the cases where the opponent has in fact helped on the flop.

When villian has 3bet in the past, has he gone to showdown regardless or does he possess some backwards fold strategy?

If your opponent is "mr opposite", what did you think of his sudden turn checkraise? Wouldn't he have led out with nothing?

Wouldn't a more profitable strategy be to play this agressively when you actually hit any piece of the board? He'll steal your raise 60% of the time and the other 40% you crush the hell out of him with a real hand..

I haven't played against opponents like this, so I'm just brain dumping..

Chugs · Mar 29,2005, 02:05 PM

I think he has JT

caught a gutshot draw on the turn, and rivers a higher 1 pair on the end.

pkrfce9 · Mar 29,2005, 02:08 PM

I can think of better ways to blow $70...

Full points for aggression, Scotty.

I put him on either 55 or Qx and he hit 2pr on the flop. Or he is a complete maniac and you were totally correct in going after him with 10-high.

Once he re-raised on the flop, I would have shut down. Your hand doesn't even beat a bluff at that point. Once the 8 came, I suppose you had a shot, albeit a very weak one.

I'm curious to hear what he had.

ScottyZ · Mar 29,2005, 02:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BBC Z

When villian has 3bet in the past, has he gone to showdown regardless or does he possess some backwards fold strategy?

Good information to have. I could recall one time I had seen this player 3-bet the flop, and I don't believe the hand went to a showdown. Without really having the facts, I felt he would probably eventually lay down no pair, and possibly even a small pair. (Though, I was not counting on the latter.)

My intuition was that he was still bluffing when he 3-bet on the flop.

Quote:

If your opponent is "mr opposite", what did you think of his sudden turn checkraise? Wouldn't he have led out with nothing?

It scared the bejeezus out of me, and really made me wish I had checked behind on the turn.

I was pretty darn close to folding here.

Quote:

Wouldn't a more profitable strategy be to play this agressively when you actually hit any piece of the board? He'll steal your raise 60% of the time and the other 40% you crush the hell out of him with a real hand..

Yes, definitely. That's what I had basically been doing up until that point, and it is certainly the strategy I stuck to after this particular hand.

ScottyZ

pkrfce9 · Mar 29,2005, 02:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ScottyZ

it is certainly the strategy I stuck to after this particular hand.

foreshadowing

magithighs · Mar 29,2005, 03:41 PM

Woa -- looks like a hand we played out in the limit forum tourney.

I guess even opposite man can hit a hand. Personally, I like to call the flop and raise when I hit the turn. Re-raising the turn, even for opposite man, usually means you're beat and can happily fold with the intention of doing the same when you hit your set next time!

If I did play the flop that way, and I will, I like to go by the rule "always give myself a chance to win". I don't like calling a check-raise and will likely want to fold. So, I just check the turn and call the river hopefully inducing a bluff.

Cheers
Magi

ScottyZ · Mar 29,2005, 03:52 PM

Quote:

So, I just check the turn and call the river hopefully inducing a bluff.

I'd say that this is a far superior way to play it from the turn onwards.

Inducing a river bluff is an excellent idea. This opponent is virtually guaranteed to bet the river no matter what he has, and I would have saved up to 2 big bets in cases where my hand is no good.

ScottyZ

pkrfce9 · Mar 30,2005, 07:36 AM

And

?

What was the result? Don't leave the wound open...

ScottyZ · Mar 30,2005, 10:22 AM

The opponent showed down T6o, and I won the pot with my paired 8 over his Ten-high.

This is one of the weirder hands I've played in limit poker in a while, and also one where I played horribly. I end up losing this hand if I don't spike my one-card 6-out draw on the turn (YUCK!), since I am clearly going to get check-raised on the turn whatever card comes off. I won't be able to call if I still have nothing at this point. (I was even a little unsure of calling when my hand had in fact improved to my pair of 8's in the actual hand.) I'm sure I would have given up on my own bluff attempt, folding to a turn check-raise on the turn had I not paired.

I think BBC Z and Magithighs (nice teamwork!) have nailed the main gross mistakes I made when playing this hand.

1. Don't go up against a bluffing addict without a hand. While the occasional bluffer can be re-bluffed, the more successful approach will generally be waiting to pick up a good hand to take up against the bluffer. Against opponents like I faced here, you will get paid off big when you hit a hand.

2. Sometimes even bluffers do pick up good hands themselves. Checking behind on the turn would have been the right play here. This is a good value play on the turn-river (inducing a bluff) if I'm ahead, and saves bets if I'm behind.

As an aside, this hand also nicely illustrates the problem of showdown hand analysis when there are future betting rounds. Run hot-and-cold, my hand is a huge favorite on every single street. However, I am still going to lose this hand a large percentage of the time due to my opponent's aggressive play.

In cases where I wasn't lucky enough to spike a pair, this would be a great example of the Fundamental Theorem of Poker in action. That is, I'd be folding a hand which, if I could see my opponent's cards, I would know is a monster favorite.

Thanks for the comments!

ScottyZ