Low-limit: Betting the river for value

ScottyZ · Sep 06,2004, 03:21 PM

One thing I've been thinking a lot about lately in terms of low-limit is my river betting.

I find it's challenging to find the right balance between betting your good hands for value (betting for value being the bread and butter of low-limit), and knowing when your opponent has either missed or hit their legitimate draws, or even wacko 2 pair draws.

Here's an example. The remaining opponent is quite loose pre-flop (about 35-40% VP$IP), and hasn't shown me anything particularly fancy in terms of bluffing. What is your plan for the river betting here?

ScottyZ

Game #583893297 - $2/$4 Texas Hold'em - 2004/09/06-13:48:00 (CST)
Table "Mypad" (real money) -- Seat 10 is the button
Seat 2: sugarB ($108.00 in chips)
Seat 3: Markus ($85.00 in chips)
Seat 4: ScottyZ ($145.00 in chips)
Seat 5: jack kass 27 ($28.00 in chips)
Seat 6: brsutter ($40.00 in chips)
Seat 7: AWPer ($83.00 in chips)
Seat 8: telboy1 ($75.00 in chips)
Seat 9: Aletheia ($65.00 in chips)
Seat 10: Cindar ($49.00 in chips)
sugarB : Post Small Blind ($1)
Markus : Post Big Blind ($2)
Dealing...
Dealt to ScottyZ [ Kh ]
Dealt to ScottyZ [ Kd ]
ScottyZ : Raise ($4)
jack kass 27: Fold
brsutter: Call ($4)
AWPer : Call ($4)
telboy1 : Fold
Aletheia: Fold
Cindar : Fold
sugarB : Fold
Markus : Call ($2)
*** FLOP *** : [ 7h Qc 5s ]
Markus : Check
ScottyZ : Bet ($2)
brsutter: Fold
AWPer : Call ($2)
Markus : Fold
*** TURN *** : [ 7h Qc 5s ] [ 8s ]
ScottyZ : Bet ($4)
AWPer : Raise ($8)
ScottyZ : Raise ($8)
AWPer : Call ($4)
*** RIVER *** : [ 7h Qc 5s 8s ] [ Jc ]

harthgosh · Sep 06,2004, 05:08 PM

Hey Scott.

Seems like your oppenent hit the Q on the flop and waited for the turn to pop you. You three bet, which scared him off, so i think at best he has two small pair, but likely only hit his Q, with any combo of Qx in the pocket.

The river J is scary, but not as bad as an A or Q, so I would bet, and if he raised, i would call.

I know that while calling this bet I am 9/10 times beat. The reason why I would do it is for the one out of ten im good, and also for info on the player (its 4 bucks christ). At the 100/200, obviously it'd be different.

Just my opinion. In low limits when I have a good hand I tend to just bet bet bet bet. if he rivers two pair, good for him.

peace

all_aces · Sep 06,2004, 06:25 PM

I really liked the way you played that hand--particularly the turn 3-bet--and I hope it has a happy ending.

I fear a bluff-raise on the turn with 9T from your opponent. Though how he could call the flop bet with 9T is beyond me. Given your description of your opponent, I'd rule it out, but against some sort of super-duper fancy kinda crazy player, I'd consider it.

An aggressive opponent who thinks he can move you off your hand would play a flopped pair of queens in this way, and, as harthgosh also pointed out, the J on the river is a bit of a scare card, but not too bad. Better than a spade, queen, or ace.

I'll second harth's plan to bet the river and just call if raised. This is a tough value bet to make after he called your turn 3-bet (a total bluff would have folded or capped, so he has a hand, or a draw) but I think betting the river is the way to go.

Regards,
all_aces

vinsanity · Sep 07,2004, 01:41 AM

I think I check call at this point. If he missed his draw, he won't call your bet but if he hit, he'll raise. plus he could already have a made hand and waited til the river to raise. I think the only hands that you can make money from a river bet is if he had a Q and put you on AK, But even still he could have spiked the other card for 2pr.

P.S. Hey Scotty, so what happened?

ScottyZ · Sep 09,2004, 10:47 PM

I checked the river with the intention of calling. My opponent checked and had As 7s, which was behind on the turn, but with a pair and flush draw.

I figured that after standing 3-bets on the turn, he's either got AQ, a good draw (possibly even a 5-outer to Qx), or I'm already losing. I figure the only opposing hand worth making a river value bet against is exactly AQ (or KQ which is unlikely with me holding 2 Kings). It's of course a reasonable hand for him to have at that point, so value betting here is not obviously out of the question by any means.

Other than AQ, I figure he's either missed his draw (and might even bluff the river in this case) and won't pay off my river bet, or I avoid the possibility of getting raised on the river when he's winning.

Thanks for the comments!

ScottyZ