Some Very Strange All in Statistics

Monteroy · Dec 11,2004, 12:04 PM

I am not one to believe in conspiracy theories or that the poker sites are rigged. However, I do track every one of my all ins to see how many times I am in good/bad situations. I had not expected the tracking to lead to some very strange results but it has.

Again, let me preface this by saying that I can not figure out a single way that the poker site (Pokerstars in this case) would benefit in any way from these results since they pretty much all come from sit and gos or multiple table tournaments where there is no rake per hand.

Also, these are not meant to sound bad beatish, because some stats are in fact way in my favor. Frankly, I am just completely baffled by them as they go way beyond the point of being lucky or unlucky. I am preparing an email to Pokerstars with all of the relevant hand data (my gut feeling is noone wants to see hundreds of hands posted here

. I do not expect a reply from them other then a standard form letter type one.

Note, this is hardly an anti Pokerstars post as I still play there for 90% of my poker. OK, enough chatter, the following are the statistics:

In my last 100 all ins preflop where I had the pocket pair and opponent had the 2 overcards - I won 24 opponent won 75 and 1 was a split.

In my last 100 all ins preflop where I had the overcards and opponents had lower pocket pair - I won 81 and opponents won 19.

Now, my stats with AK were completely crazy.

Of the last 50 all ins pre flop where I had AK vs a dominated hand (ie: AJ KJ K2 etc) I won 12 lost 36 and tied 2. Included in that was a streak of 20 losses in a row (of which the odds are several billion to one against). Even when I look at the data that I tracked I can hardly believe this (and I know how crazy it sounds).

On the flip side, I am currently on a streak where my AK has beated lower pairs all in 15 times in a row and 19 of the last 20 times. The odds of this are not in the billions but still pretty high.

Lately when I am all in with AK I get relieved when I see QQ instead of KQ

The stats for AQ (smaller sample size) are all about what would be expected statistically.

Oh, goofy stat. My JJ is 4 for 4 against overpairs all in preflop.

Seriously, I have no idea what to make of this. My sample sizes are not statistically huge, but they are not tiny either, and the large deviations from expectation (both positive and negative) is concerning at this point.

I am not even sure what replies anyone can make to this post, nor do I have any suggestions. I am a person who does not believe in conspiracy theories or even luck, I am a stats cruncher and I was completely caught off guard when my stat crunching (done to track how often I am in a good/bad situation etc) revealed some very puzzling results.

I guess I would ask others if they can to simply track their all ins of overcards vs pairs and if inclined their AK situations to see if they match my results at all.

Oh, for what it is worth - I am the dominant hand 10 times more often then the dominated hand all in preflop so I guess in that regard I am doing something right

harthgosh · Dec 11,2004, 02:41 PM

MONTEROY!!!!!!

I am bunked up with noah inthe bellagio and we want to know who you are.

tell us tell us tell us : )

MickeyHoldem · Dec 11,2004, 03:47 PM

Quote:

In my last 100 all ins preflop where I had the pocket pair and opponent had the 2 overcards - I won 24 opponent won 75 and 1 was a split.

In my last 100 all ins preflop where I had the overcards and opponents had lower pocket pair - I won 81 and opponents won 19.

So "pocket pairs" record vs. 2 overs is... 43-156-1

This is soooo far out of the norm it borders on "impossibull".

Flip a coin 200 times, and the odds that heads (or tails) is that far behind is less than 1 in 4046618236960850

thats 1 in 4 thousand trillion (thats alot of bananas for your monkey)

p.s. I don't think I'm off by more than 1 order of magnitude...anyone... anyone?

Monteroy · Dec 11,2004, 04:53 PM

Well, I am not sure on your math ( I forgot how to do combinations type calculations a while ago), but I am in agreement that these stats make absolutely no sense from a "fluke luck" point of view, and that's what frustrates me. The only explanations would be either 1) I am making them up or 2) There is a flaw in the software.

I totally understand people who think number 1 but the fact is I have nothing to gain by posting these stats, and in fact can only lose (if people think Im nuts). I did not even compile the stats for this reason, so believe me I was frustrated and baffled when I saw some of these results.

I don't see how they actually change the results of tournaments much as they will balance out, and in fact I have done well in tournaments as of late.

The only real way to verify this is for others to track these all in situations. Pairs vs overcards and AK vs dominated hands all in. If the results prove to be curious for many people and the sample size is large enough then it will be obvious what the problem is (though again not being a computer person I can't figure out how this type of bug would happen or even why/what use it would be to anyone).

Believe me when I say nothing is more frustrating to a person who keeps statistics then to find extremely unusual results with no logical explanation (ie: benefits certain players, the house etc).

Harth I am trying to private message you but the current boards have a lot of red x areas where I assume some of those functions are, and I can't figure out which to click.

pkrfce9 · Dec 12,2004, 10:49 AM

My last experience in a PS tourney definitely had me and a few of the others shaking their heads. In nearly every case, the underdog won the all-in situation. People were hitting inside straights, 6 high flushes, etc.
It was happening so regularly, a number of the players were claiming the site was rigged. We all thought it was funny but I'm curious to see if others have the same experience.

This is only anecdotal evidence but I was down to my last few chips, posted the blinds and an aggressive player went all-in. I had little to lose so I called with my 10-3 offsuit. It won. I went on to win my first tourney on that site!

Monteroy · Dec 12,2004, 01:21 PM

Those situations are tricky because when a bad player calls am all in with an inside straight draw post flop and hits it leaves a much stronger impression then when bad players call with junk and miss (as they should), and it may be that people remember the bad hands hitting more.

I don't have any all in post flop tracking data, so I wouldn't be able to provide any kind of l observations on that situation, though that does sound a bit more like frustrated short term bad beat syndrome.

I played a $3 rebuy for the 200+15 on Stars yesterday (and was one of the winners). There was a nice player at my table for over 3 hours before he was moved (who also eventually won). He won an all in early in the rebuy of AQ vs JJ and said he was lucky. I mentioned that overcards win nearly all the time on Stars. He thought I was joking so we kept track of all of the all ins of that type at our table for that tournament.

Overcards were 11 for 12 vs pairs all in preflop up until he got moved.

the_main · Dec 12,2004, 07:13 PM

altough i havent been tracking them, id say my pairs take down overcards more often than not

Chugs · Dec 13,2004, 10:05 AM

well it also depends on how many people go all-in.

i don't mind your chances all-in with pocket 2s against a guy with AK, basic coinflip.

now take that hand all-in against AK and some guy playing 89s or QJ ... i don't like your chances.

I find quite often in the pokerstars $3 or $11 turbo satellites once two people are all-in some other yahoo will come along for the ride (and i've been that yahoo also ... short stacked 78s, three guys all-in ... gold)

JuiceMan · Dec 14,2004, 06:48 PM

I lost all in pre flop when i had kk v two conectors not even pairs over 10 times. also i lost preflopp with AA 4 times in one night. I find that maybe its some way of stopping unexperienced players from losing all the time when they make big mistakes.

Dec 16,2004, 03:32 PM

I just had a horrible beat myself. Check that out.

Ace king gets sucked out

This was in a NL sng, pacific poker. I was slightly below average stack with about 825 of the 4000 chips in play (5 players to start). The player I end up with was at about 875, so in no position to be playing those cards for a raise with 4 still to act.
To set the stage:

1. He raised my big blind from under the gun. (bb was 30, he makes it 75 to go)
2. I reraised with my ace king (175 total).
3. He calls.
4. Flop comes as depicted by two dimes, he comes out with a huge bet I reraise to put myself all in. Called.

Guess what he pulled to win? Perfect perfect, 7 and 7.

Honestly. Explain this?

MickeyHoldem · Dec 16,2004, 04:33 PM

isn't one 7 enough for him to win?

Dec 16,2004, 08:49 PM

Indeed but insult to injury, a raised pot and a board like that. Bottom pair and a bad kicker. Sickening.

pkrfce9 · Dec 16,2004, 08:59 PM

Online poker is rigged. The evidence is irrefutable. Just look at how much my bankroll has gone up in the past few months and I am a terrible player.

They tell me my cheque is in the mail. Bush won the election fair and square. And that Ukranian guy was poisoned. Oh wait, that one IS true.