A test, not for the weak

JonB · Feb 25,2004, 12:23 AM

It's a 100+9 buyin, HU game. You have 1860 in chips, versus his 1140.

You haven't played very long with this guy maybe 15 hands, and over a quarter of them were folded.

Your in the big blind (not the button). Your dealt Ts 6c and he just flat calls the blinds of 10 and 20.

Flop: Kd 7h Tc

You bet 80. He calls.

Turn: 5h

You bet 100. He calls.

River: 4d

You bet 400. He raises the rest of his stack.

Now tell me, what would you do?

esool · Feb 25,2004, 12:34 AM

First off I would not have bet 400. Maybe 200.
Anyway I would fold, I put him on at least a pair of K, maybe two pair, who knows maybe he made the straight. Either way I am out.

Like the voice said in the Amitiville Horror movie GET OUT.

Dave Scharf · Feb 25,2004, 01:06 AM

Although it seems obvious, in my own thinking I like to start by stating the obvious since it often helps put the question at hand in stark relief:

He either has a BIG hand or a PURE bluff.

He does not have a mediocre hand because he would be prone to show it down and see if he is a winner. He is raising as a bluff -- or because he feels CONFIDENT that he has you beat.

In the situation you are descirbed I am doubtful that he is bluffing.

Quote:

You haven't played very long with this guy maybe 15 hands, and over a quarter of them were folded.

He has not made himself out to be a ram and jam, huff and bluff gunner. He appears, at face value anyway, to be a reasonably conservative player. If he is a highly skilled fox, it is unlikely that he is running a pure bluff EARLY in a heads up match. On a balance of probability I am going to assume that he has a big hand (I will guess K-4o).

Also... if you fold you will still have 1280 chips which is easily competitive.

ScottyZ · Feb 25,2004, 01:34 AM

I'd lean towards folding here.

However, I've got to agree with esool in terms of the *amount* of the river bet.

A lot of players using the betting pattern "small flop, small turn, big river" are actually showing *weakness*. So, betting 400 on the river may represent to your opponent that you have a busted draw, or an otherwise weak hand, and are now getting desparate to pick up the pot. This opens you up for a river raise bluff from a tricky opponent who also has a weak hand. (Like Dave mentioned, a mediochre hand can simply call and pick you off if he puts you on a river bluff.)

I'm curious as to why you'd bet the river at all? For value? To simply not appear weak? To push your opponent off a better hand? I think in the first 2 cases, you can bet less than 400, and in the third case, you've got to bet more.

Another negative consequence of betting exactly 400 on the river, is that your opponent's raise becomes only about 550 more into a pot of about 1200. Your river bet size puts you in a tough spot here and you have to make a difficult decision between being left with around either 1300 or 750 if you call and lose. Better to have made a smaller bet (which would also fit naturally within your betting pattern on this hand) which you can get away from more easily, or simply move in yourself and put the pressure on your opponent with the whole 950 or so he has left.

It sure is difficult to put your opponent on a hand here. Is he really going to play a K (even K4) that slowly on the first 3 streets? Is he trapping you with a monster like 77? Maybe he's got QJ? Is he making a desparation bet himself with something liike 72?

ScottyZ

vinsanity · Feb 25,2004, 04:40 AM

I'd fold pretty easily here. he could have you beat with a number of hands and its not worth it to call his bluff. 550 to win 1750, you're getting about 3 to 1 odds. He's gotta be a pretty frequent bluffer for you to call and you don't have enough information. best to save your chips when you have more information.

just for fun, i'm gonna guess AA, or KK. looks to me like slowplaying a monster.

JonB · Feb 26,2004, 01:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ScottyZ

Is he really going to play a K (even K4) that slowly on the first 3 streets? Is he trapping you with a monster like 77? Maybe he's got QJ? Is he making a desparation bet himself with something liike 72?

ScottyZ

Exactly!

Dave Scharf · Feb 26,2004, 02:09 AM

I will FREQUENTLY play a weak king that slowly in no-limit. It depends a great deal on what I think about my opponent. I will also frequently check and fold a weak king in that spot.

If you have K-4 and there is a king on the flop you are either a BIG favourite or a BIG dog. Checking and calling isn't all that bad, expecially if you have your opponent in a small box. In fact, if the SB in question *did* have K-4 in the hand in question he has played it perfectly by getting our hero to bet a worse hand twice and then go bust on the river... that's not what happened of course, but it shows one of the strengths of playing weak top pair with a great deal of caution.

I think the SB in reality plays the hand TERRIBLY. His river check-raise is a pure bluff -- if he gets called he gets beat. If you are going to attempt this play, at least make it on the turn where you may still have outs if you are called.

ScottyZ · Feb 26,2004, 02:42 AM

Quote:

I think the SB in reality plays the hand TERRIBLY. His river check-raise...

Agreed, although I think it was merely a raise on the river.

Actually, I'd probably play a *big* hand (AK or better on the flop) exactly the way your opponent played it.

If I had the bottom pair with 97, I probably would fold on that flop. This is probably a somewhat weak play since it's heads up, but my opponent firing 80 into a limped-in pot of 40 troubles me.

If I felt I should play it for some reason, I'd probably raise it to 300 on the flop to attempt to take control of the betting. Then, if the turn is checked, I'll fire again, probably another 200 (to simulate a value bet). I'd consider just stacking in, though I don't think I'd want to put the rest of my chips behind this play, especially since the turn card isn't even remotely a scare card. If the bet was called on the turn, I would check it down on the river hoping that the 7 is good. At that point, I don't think I could get a better hand out. I'll fold it if my opponent plays back at any point.

The main reason I might play it this way is I think I can get a King to at least slow down, and a Ten (or otherwise threatening draws, such as merely overcards to the 7) to possibly fold.

ScottyZ

Dave Scharf · Feb 26,2004, 05:42 AM

Quote:

Agreed, although I think it was merely a raise on the river.

It's not a value bet. If you get called, you are beat. Thus, it's a bluff.

ScottyZ · Feb 26,2004, 05:54 AM

Yes, I agree with you that this raise is a bluff, not a value bet. I was just being nitpicky when you called it a check-raise. It was just a raise.

ScottyZ

Dave Scharf · Feb 26,2004, 06:03 AM

Nope. It's a check-raise. "Our hero" JonB is the big blind.

JonB · Feb 26,2004, 06:13 AM

Sorry if that was unclear but it wasn't a check-raise. I was in the BB but heads up.

Dave Scharf · Feb 26,2004, 06:15 AM

I am shamed. I am embarassed. I am forsaken. I am the walrus.

Yes... I see that now. I was perfectly clear. It is my reading comprehension skills that are the problem.

JonB · Feb 26,2004, 06:18 AM

The thing with the K4o I'm prett sure I would have seen a raise on the flop or the turn. Not the river. It was the call on the flop that threw me off. I think this is the biggest reason I ended up calling his all in. Also because of the way the cards fell. This was like a 1-100 call I would make.

ScottyZ · Feb 26,2004, 06:24 AM

Okay then. I guess I was confused by the initial post since it seemed like JonB was acting first on every round.

If JonB is really acting *last* on every street, then delete everything I have said so far.

Now, I have to question betting 400 on the river. What is the purpose of this bet? How do you make this bet if you are even going to *consider* folding if your opponent raises for his last 550. Why not just show it down instead?

When you bet the river with a mediochre hand in last position after your opponent checks (with the stack, pot & bet sizes as they were), you had better have the intention *in advance* of calling your opponent's raise.

Are you hoping to get the 400 simply called by a worse hand?

ScottyZ