Hobbes

Man I can be a real donk sometimes.
Been playing the 45 person S&G's lately with some success 33% ITM on my last 50 (small sample). Unfortunately not many 1st or seconds.

Anyways on to the hand.
We're on the bubble.

Been Fn card dead for most of the night (2 tourneys and my best cards were AKo, highest pair were 7's...ugh) and this may have affected by judgement.

Pupserl has been pretty loose/agressive with his stack. Seeing alot of flops for cheap.

sbrilax has been pretty solid but tends to over play some hands (e.g AK any suited ace)

HOLD'EM NO LIMIT - LEVEL VIII (200/400) - 2007/07/12 - 21:46:09 (ET)
Table '55298757 4' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 2: Pupserl (13979 in chips)
Seat 3: sbrilax (4460 in chips)
Seat 4: captain karl (21190 in chips)
Seat 5: RollingAgile (5125 in chips)
Seat 6: Partyr (4375 in chips)
Seat 7: glory35 (5736 in chips)
Seat 8: beachwooddad (6890 in chips)
Seat 9: Hobbes614 (5745 in chips)
Pupserl: posts the ante 25
sbrilax: posts the ante 25
captain karl: posts the ante 25
RollingAgile: posts the ante 25
Partyr: posts the ante 25
glory35: posts the ante 25
beachwooddad: posts the ante 25
Hobbes614: posts the ante 25
sbrilax: posts small blind 200
captain karl: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hobbes614 [Jd Qh]
RollingAgile: folds
Partyr: folds
glory35: folds
beachwooddad: folds
Hobbes614: calls 400 <- Probably should have raised. but pupserl has been calling alot of raises OOP and making big bets on the flop.

Pupserl: folds
sbrilax: calls 200
captain karl: checks
*** FLOP *** [Ah Th 9d]
sbrilax: checks
captain karl: checks
Hobbes614: checks <- Yea, I get to see the turn for free with my open ender.

*** TURN *** [Ah Th 9d] [8s] <- Man I finally hit one.
sbrilax: checks
captain karl: checks
Hobbes614: bets 1200 <- Pot size bet.
sbrilax: calls 1200 <- Mostlikly on the flush draw or top pair.
captain karl: folds
*** RIVER *** [Ah Th 9d 8s] [Qd]
sbrilax: bets 1600
Now what? I think a fold is out of the question.
(Rest of hand in white below)


Hobbes614: raises 2520 to 4120 and is all-in
sbrilax: calls 1235 and is all-in
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Hobbes614: shows [Jd Qh] (a straight, Eight to Queen)
sbrilax: shows [Jh Kc] (a straight, Ten to Ace)
sbrilax collected 9470 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 9470 | Rake 0
Board [Ah Th 9d 8s Qd]
Seat 2: Pupserl (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: sbrilax (small blind) showed [Jh Kc] and won (9470) with a straight, Ten to Ace
Seat 4: captain karl (big blind) folded on the Turn
Seat 5: RollingAgile folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Partyr folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: glory35 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: beachwooddad folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: Hobbes614 showed [Jd Qh] and lost with a straight, Eight to Queen

__________________
Hobbes
Playing micros is like getting a rectal exam from a leper who walks away with 9 fingers.

BBC Z

Push.

wocka wocka wocka

__________________
13Cards is the worst thing to happen to Canadian Poker ever.

SirWatts

I'd raise preflop and often bet the flop depending on the players. Push river.

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sirwatts.blogspot.com

ReefAquarium

I push here,

Bubble is prime stealing time....

Your M is 8 .... betting 3xBB makes not sense... push.

I would push here.

There is 1200 in the pot.
It's the bubble.
Push them out.

Push.

I would push here, betting 1200 leaves you with about 4100 and the pot will be 3600 if one of them calls.

You'll be pot committed.

Push.

Wow that bet made no sense, He's got 1235 behind in a 5200 pot

It' looks like a suck bet.

Can you lay it down here...

Nah.

You're pot committed.

Push.

Do I sound like a pushbot?

__________________
Not smarter than a grade 5 or Kristy Sea

BBC Z

Jebus, you open push preflop? Win 600 or lose 5400.. Horrible.

__________________
13Cards is the worst thing to happen to Canadian Poker ever.

ReefAquarium

It's the bubble, people are trying to sneak into the money. Time to push them off hands.

Yes limping may be better.

My point is that most people play tight on the bubble , worrying about getting into the money.
So Now is the prime time to steal.


I'd push on this flop and turn for sure.

__________________
Not smarter than a grade 5 or Kristy Sea

BBC Z

How often do you expect a player to call?

__________________
13Cards is the worst thing to happen to Canadian Poker ever.

Chuckieland

i was wondering, do you still push if you see most of raise or push has been call? or do you wait until you got a good hand?
i can see if the table is tight, then push to steal the blind.
i don't know what's with the seating plan on tourny.
#1 and #2 stacked are always on my left, and always call any raise or push.
it's hard to steal the blind, knowing 100% of chance, that i would get call.
and

Chuckieland

i was wondering, do you still push if you see most of raise or push has been call? or do you wait until you got a good hand?
i can see if the table is tight, then push to steal the blind.
i don't know what's with the seating plan on tourny.
#1 and #2 stacked are always on my left, and always call any raise or push.
it's hard to steal the blind, knowing 100% of chance, that i would get call.
frankly, i'm sick of been bubble boy.

ReefAquarium

I'm assuming they are players who are afraid of bubbling out and are playing tight.

They will call with AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AKs, AKo, AQs
That's 6+6+6+6+6+4+12+4=50 hands

the 3 players behind you will each call about 4% of the time, you'll win about 1/4 of the times you're called.

So I'm guessing you'll get called about 12% of the time, and you'll lose 9% of the time, the other 3% of the time you'll double up.

88% of the time you'll win $600
9% of the time you'll be out
3% of the time you'll double up.

You can probably put this through poker stove and do an ICM model or adjust the peoples calling range to make the numbers work out to something else, but this is what I was thinking.

__________________
Not smarter than a grade 5 or Kristy Sea