Jh is a pretty safe card for your hand, here i would try to make a smaller bet to allow your opponent to make a mistake by calling where they think they have the right odds. for example if your opponent has a flush draw, they are about 1 in 5 to win on the river, so if you make a 1/5 of the pot bet you give them the right odds to call... if you bet 2/5 of the pot and give them incorrect odds to call but still close to the right odds to call maybe they will make a bad call, for this specific situation (ie your opponent has a flush draw) i think that a bet of about 3500-4000 is appropriate. it is really read dependent. i think about 3500 seems like a good bet to me, as your opponent seems fairly weak and may have something like AK where they could call your bet drawing nearly dead and not know it.
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'weak tight' - 2006 Royal Cup Champions - Team Waterloo
The turn bet is rather large, and from the fact that he min-raised preflop, and then made a min-continuation bet tells me that he's fairly scared of putting chips in. When he calls your flop raise (a good amount in IMO), it could be screaming "big hand", but I can't imagine what it would be unless it's set over set, and well, then you're just bound to bleed.
My guess is he's got a decent ace, maybe AK and is afraid to play it well, maybe something like A10. If this is the case, I'm not sure how much you could have bet to keep him on the line on the turn...
Mark
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Life's usually simple, just not always easy
When he calls your flop raise (a good amount in IMO)
Are you kidding? He had to call 1200 into a pot of almost 8000. He has to know you most likely have a monster and are not the least bit concerned about a call. What a great spot for a flush or straight draw to call.
I am actually serious based on the way he's played the hand, I'm not thinking he has much of a hand, nor does he have much of a draw.
He is very unlikely to have played any of the potential straight hands from an EP raise. I mentioned earlier the hands I figured him for, but let's say he's been scared off by the overcards to his pocket 7's through J's even. Him having to call 1200 into a pot of 7875 is still incorrect odds for two outs(6.57:1), further, it is also the poor odds for a runner - runner draw. He is obviously weak on the flop, and any large bet there will end the hand.
When I have a set, I want to be paid off. I think Moose put in (on the flop) pretty much all he can get. The turn bet was too much however, since the pot is now 9075, and the J is only "scary" if he is willing to draw for the gutshot with his AK / A10, so a bet of even 3000 is pretty tasty there for me - takes away the odds, and gives him 4:1.
Of course, if he had two clubs, we're not taking away his odds, but well, sometimes you gotta gambool
Mark
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Life's usually simple, just not always easy
I think so. You got greedy. His call on the flop raise appears to be a desperation to improve at decent odds (I think your flop raise was too low too). Opponent didn't show enough strength to warrant a bet that high on the turn. You're definitely ahead and the best hand your opponent could be drawing with would be AKc or ATc giving him 10 actual outs plus the dead overcard outs. Perhaps 1/3 of the pot.
I think a check on the turn is a risky option. It shows weakness and might get opponent to bluff, but he's not going to call a bet on the river if he misses so you're getting no value.
As soon as he folded I didn't like it. I was happy to take the pot right there however. Even though I had a decent amount of chips, I was only ahead of two players at my table. With the pot I was in a much more comfortable chip position. What I didn't like about the bet was that it left me pot committed. Instead of 2/3 of my remaining stack, I should have fired about 1/2.
I had absolutely no read on the guy. He minraised UTG+1, he was either huge or playing a weak A or small PP. If I had a better box I could have tried a smaller turn bet. But without that box, when he flat called the flop, I was hoping a big PP. With the pot sized bet I was hoping I was representing Q with weak kicker and if he figured he had that beat then he would shove for me. Mostly in the end I think he was a player with air who was too dumb to give up on the flop because he had lots of chips and was probably folding to any turn bet. Just too bad I guess that the turn wasn't an A.
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To Bet or not to Be(t). That is the question. - Billy (Big Slick) Shakespeare
RC III, XI - Champions!
I think you have to fold/raise 6's with your stack for 1600 pre and no callers inbetween. I think you either have to raise a less fishy amount on the flop or call and hope for more money on the turn. (please no MUTB debate about the draws) Lastly when he checks to you on the turn, you need to gently cajole him into donking off a few more chips to your obv winner.
This is an $10+1, the subtlety of overbetting because he checks the turn is usually lost on players at this level- It will not elicit a call from some of the possible weaker holdings. You gave him too much credit-they're not usually as smart as you
Last edited by Kristy_Sea; Aug 21,2007 at 04:01 PM.
Reason: I can't spell
I am calling for set value against a donkey raise. My plan for this hand was to encourage more callers preflop. My backup plan without any callers was to take this hand down on the flop heads up. However I did hit my set, so I got to extract some extra value.
The 1.5x raise on the flop was to encourage a big hand to come back over the top.
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To Bet or not to Be(t). That is the question. - Billy (Big Slick) Shakespeare
RC III, XI - Champions!
I think you were puck and the BB is sitting out and doesn't have enough chips to pay off a set properly anyway.
So you're hoping the sb will call with a mediocre hand and you're not putting the raiser on much (re: your back up plan) ...so neither of them are likely to pay big$ to your set. I think the 2.5bb on the flop was a flukey bonus, but normally the manner in which you played this is not going to pay off, and you don't like most flops. I think playing it differently could be better overall.
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