flop 2 pair what to do
This was saturday playing 1/2 NL at my place. Table is a mix of loose fish and loose aggressive players, with one full time poker pro from Rama playing. Everyone liked to limp into a lot of pots.
I'm on the button with J9 hearts and limp in and we see a flop 8 handed.
Flop comes J 9 diamonds and 7 spades. 2 checks then a $7 bet, which got raised to $25. Both these players are loose aggressive players.
Stack sizes are as follows Original better just over $250, raiser just over $200 and me with about $375
What's your move?
I'm on the button with J9 hearts and limp in and we see a flop 8 handed.
Flop comes J 9 diamonds and 7 spades. 2 checks then a $7 bet, which got raised to $25. Both these players are loose aggressive players.
Stack sizes are as follows Original better just over $250, raiser just over $200 and me with about $375
What's your move?
Comments
$16 in the pot
$47 in the pot..
Stack to pot ratio is 5 ( 1/2 pot bettor) or 4 (pot sized raiser) plus 2 checkers after you ...
How deep are the 2 guys who checked?
I'm not putting the later position people at high pairs or AK since they are aggressive and didn't raise preflop. Mid to low pairs, High card hands like Q8, QT, AJ, KJ, A9 are possible. I don't think they are pure bluffing since the pot is so multiway. Semi bluffs are a distinct possiblilty on such a draw heavy board.
With top two and LAGS in mid late position and an SPR of 5, I'm fine with comitting to this pot ... I don't know about how deep the EP checkers are but I'm guessing they aren't significant???
2 lines seem likely. Small ball and longball. Do you play better postflop then these guys? If you do then play smallball.
Smallball. Flat call to make use of your great position here. This is dangerous since this is a draw heavy board. If a dangerous card comes on the turn (say 10d) then you get to see what they do.
This line offers the first limper about 3 to 1 to fill his flush/straight draw. It has the disadvantage of not getting more info from the raiser/better.
If the checkers fold and the bettor flat calls then you are raising for value if it's checked around to you on a safe turn.
Longball. If you think they will go broke with top pair, Raise about 75 more. If re-raised call the LAGs. If called push most turns.
i must have slept through that math class. help me to run those numbers.
8-way limped pot? you can't be too in love with your hand. what would doyle say here? well, at least you have position.
ok, so only 18% chance to win the hand. For some reason I was thinking trips vs straight. Need to get those reading glasses.
That's why I would advocate a raise right now. $75 seems like a standard amount but I'm thinking even $60 will give you the info you need to know. Your decision after this raise will depend on the responses.
The reason I don't like flat-calling is that it is usually a move "to see what happens" or slowplaying a monster or floating. So this is obviously a see what happens situation and frankly too many different things could happen and make you next decision even more difficult whether it's another re-raise on the flop or a shitty turn card and more action.
Edit: New Concept - We have all heard the method for raising to protect your hand. How about raising to protect your stack? If you don't want to go broke in an unraised pot, a raise on the flop here may get you enough information to get away from this hand thus saving the rest of your stack. Thoughts?
Agree...but I would be just as happy taking this down on the flop without having an opponent get just a bit lucky on this board. VERY draw heavy, I don't want to be behind a bad turn card here and forced to make a decision on 4th street.
Danger cards...any diamond...8, 10, and Q to A to make better 2pr. Thats alot of cards for opponent to hit with.
i'm curious as to the timing of the others leaving the pot. that raise to 25 on the flop with 7 people left to act sounds like a pretty big hand, doesn't it? then smooth calling your raise OOP is strange. i don't think T8 smooth calls here. maybe a nut flush draw or a set? or a flush draw with a gutshot? after all, K8 MAKE MONEY!
i would likely fold unless i think the guy is a tool and then i prob pay him off. what hand calls you on the flop that you are ahead of now?
that 50 into ~200 bet is pretty weak, though. is he possibly throwing up a blocker bet here with a good draw? if i think that is what he is doing i prob push on him. he is likely to call anyway with a ~25% chance to river you. sounds like it would only be 100 more for him to call so he is getting good odds.
or is it T8 suddenly afraid of a boat and testing the waters? i just can't see him smooth calling the flop with T8. maybe he sees you as an uber lag? no, that can't be it!
i guess i shove then but even if you are behind only trip 7s, i doubt you have any fold equity.
The pot is now $247 and the villain has $100 back? It's 50 you.
The villain makes a tiny bet donk bet on a very draw heavy board to a guy who 3 bet the flop?
This guy could care less about offering 5 to 1 to a flush/straight draw.
Stack to pot ratio is .4 here.. pretty obvious that the math says that this is a commitment type situation.
The question is it a suck bet or a blocking bet? Do you want to let him bluff his final $100? or.. Do you want to try make him pay to draw his final card if he's on the flush/straight draw?
Is he on a draw? Your $75 into the pot gave him bad odds to draw to a 8 out or 9 out flush/straight. A monster draw would have outs to make a play, although he should a shoved on the flop if he had a monster draw. (is this villain the Rama pro that you mentioned?)
If he's a good player he wouldn't be in a situation where he calls a draw on the flop with neither pot odds or implied odds to call unless he's bluffing. But the flop bet is too small to be anything but a post oak bluff.
Conclusion , He ain't on a draw if he's a good player.
That is true, and he isn't the Rama pro. As Greg alluded too I think the guy is a tool. I flat called his $50 just to see what hit on the river. He looked very confused that I called rather than pushed because that's what he expected me to do. River Card: Jack of clubs. Mr. Tool bets $50 into me again.
I love your terminology. I was determined if he was going to let me call down cheap to do it. In my mind the river changed the whole situation.
Strange $347 in the pot and the villain has $50 back and it's $50 to you...
Staggering underbet with probably not any fold equity.
He wasn't on a draw.
He doesn't have JJ+ or AK.
What could he have that would make him make these tiny bets into the draw heavy turn????
And then make an insultingly small river bet.
You have to commit here. Barring some insane read ....
I'd "think" about it and put in the $100
It's probably not possible to play QQ worse.
Drinking will probably improve his game.
I'd love to have him in my game!
He was drinking!!!!! Personally I could never have put him on that hand. I think I would have pushed and not called the $75 after the flop. I probably would have called the push as I don't see me laying top 2 down here.
He fooled me completely.
Thanx for the hand.
El Rastrero.