Nut Flush and Two Overs on Flop and I folded?
BM
BB is loose aggressive squared. Raises almost ever pot. ($600)
Me button. ($650)
2 limpers I make it 15 from the button and BB makes it $45. Everyone else folds I call with AKd.
Flop in 9d5d2s
BB makes it $100.
Rule at this casino is that HU you can show cards.
He shows QcQd. He has made this play often b/c he says he doesn't like to get draw out on. I don't understand that either but that is what he does. I know that if I call and there is no helpers on the turn he will shove.
I fold.
Reasoning: I am 55% to the river but if nothing hits the turn I cannot call $450 on a flush draw so really I am only getting one card. With 8 outs to the flush(Qd in his hand) 3A and 3K I have 14 outs. So I am only about 30% to hit the turn. If I do hit the turn I am sure that I am not getting paid. I have seen him make the play many times. I only have $45 into this pot. I want to pick a better spot.
BB is loose aggressive squared. Raises almost ever pot. ($600)
Me button. ($650)
2 limpers I make it 15 from the button and BB makes it $45. Everyone else folds I call with AKd.
Flop in 9d5d2s
BB makes it $100.
Rule at this casino is that HU you can show cards.
He shows QcQd. He has made this play often b/c he says he doesn't like to get draw out on. I don't understand that either but that is what he does. I know that if I call and there is no helpers on the turn he will shove.
I fold.
Reasoning: I am 55% to the river but if nothing hits the turn I cannot call $450 on a flush draw so really I am only getting one card. With 8 outs to the flush(Qd in his hand) 3A and 3K I have 14 outs. So I am only about 30% to hit the turn. If I do hit the turn I am sure that I am not getting paid. I have seen him make the play many times. I only have $45 into this pot. I want to pick a better spot.
Comments
Youre actually 52-47 ahead with the cards faceup.
...and if he hates races make him decide.
or if he is playing scared money.
fyp
2 overs and the nut flush draw I'm there all day.
OP: If you're worried about not getting paid on the turn, shove now.
u hate money
Nut Flush DRAWand Two Overs on Flop and I folded?
Thay way, I could have skipped clicking it....
+1
I think you should have shovelled.
If I see QQ there (even with the Qd) I am shoving. At worst he puts you on a flush draw, probably the nut flush, and with his statement that he doesn't like getting out drawn he may fold. He could also put you on KK or a set and fold right there.
If I am 300bb deep at 1/2, I may not shove here. If it is 2/5 or 3/5 all my chips are finding their way to middle. If I miss, well it happens...reload.
minraising isn't dumb lol, it's actually pretty smart here ^^' or even a call. As long as you're commited in your head and plans to get it in on the turn no matter what I think playing mindgames with villain is a pretty fun way to do it. Shoving the flop after he shows his hand makes absolutely no sense so that would narrow your range down to exactly a draw
Shoving may give you some fold equity if the other guy is playing scared money and doesn't want to flip.
Couldnt disagree more, what if you just call and the turn is a Q, or what if you minraise and the turn is a Q, dumb play, suckers play, your giving him all the advantage by not shoving, if he calls your a head so thats perfect, if you just call and the turn come an A or K, you might not get it all, even if you hit your flush he prob will think you were drawing for only calling the $100. Hes not gonna put you on top pair since he showed you qq. So whether you call or shove, hes gonna think, AA, KK or big draw. He has no other option to put you on these hands.
We don't really need to plan for him hitting a Q time out of 20 lol. What I'm trying to do is to rep some two pair hands or set hands, unlikely as they may be. Playing a hand knowing your opponents holecards is a rare oppertunity and I really really want to find a way to mess with him for being so retarted here.
A shove here is transparent,we're not gonna have AA or KK like ever so he's gonna be forced to call. If we don't shove there is a decent chance an opponent might outlevel himself, and if we're never folding anyway and he's only folding when a flushcard hits the turn it's almost the same as shoving with added FE
man i tried to do it out but the numbers are yelling at my brain
Shoving:
.52 x 1200 = 624
re raising 100 chips (assuming just a call from opp creates a 400 chip pot):
on the turn approx:
30% of the time you will be 96% to win so we will assume you bet and opp folds.
61% of the time you will be 33% behind but will have the pot odds to call any bet
4% you will fold to the opponents bet
30% you win 400 = 120
61% you win .33(1200) = 242
4% you lose 400 = -16
= 346
.....and i'm lost....