Do you make this call

HobbesHobbes
in No Limit / Pot Limit Holdem
Playing a donkfest on stars. 9800 started and we are still 100 from the money (if you call it that) lol

This hand happened final hand before the break. I made the call based on this reasoning:

I am getting about 2:1 on my call and if I fold I am short. Think it's an autocall here hoping for a race (and Jeff agrees).

Thoughs?



PokerStars Game #15200599638: Tournament #76869991, $2.50+$0.25 Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (200/400) - 2008/02/10 - 19:06:44 (ET)
Table '76869991 329' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: loulou078 (19741 in chips)
Seat 2: quietstorm01 (4456 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 3: Nick22Kelly (23914 in chips)
Seat 4: seb_russo69 (12327 in chips)
Seat 5: MissAniram (4691 in chips)
Seat 6: Hobbes614 (8945 in chips)
Seat 7: tholes (10134 in chips)
Seat 8: chriscross78 (4300 in chips)
Seat 9: bounce247 (19437 in chips)
loulou078: posts the ante 25
quietstorm01: posts the ante 25
Nick22Kelly: posts the ante 25
seb_russo69: posts the ante 25
MissAniram: posts the ante 25
Hobbes614: posts the ante 25
tholes: posts the ante 25
chriscross78: posts the ante 25
bounce247: posts the ante 25
tholes: posts small blind 200
chriscross78: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hobbes614 [Jh Ah]
bounce247: calls 400
loulou078: calls 400
quietstorm01: folds
Nick22Kelly: folds
seb_russo69: calls 400
MissAniram: folds
Hobbes614: raises 1600 to 2000
tholes: raises 8109 to 10109 and is all-in
chriscross78: folds
bounce247: folds
loulou078: folds
seb_russo69: folds
Hobbes614: calls 6920 and is all-in

*** FLOP *** [5h Qd 2d]
*** TURN *** [5h Qd 2d] [3h]
*** RIVER *** [5h Qd 2d 3h] [8c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
tholes: shows [Kc As] (high card Ace)
Hobbes614: shows [Jh Ah] (high card Ace - lower kicker)
tholes collected 19665 from pot
dordeny is connected
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 19665 | Rake 0
Board [5h Qd 2d 3h 8c]
Seat 1: loulou078 folded before Flop
Seat 2: quietstorm01 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Nick22Kelly folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: seb_russo69 folded before Flop
Seat 5: MissAniram folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Hobbes614 (button) showed [Jh Ah] and lost with high card Ace
Seat 7: tholes (small blind) showed [Kc As] and won (19665) with high card Ace
Seat 8: chriscross78 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: bounce247 folded before Flop

Comments

  • RedingtonRedington
    Hobbes wrote: »

    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to Hobbes614 [Jh Ah]
    bounce247: calls 400
    loulou078: calls 400
    quietstorm01: folds
    Nick22Kelly: folds
    seb_russo69: calls 400
    MissAniram: folds
    Hobbes614: raises 1600 to 2000
    tholes: raises 8109 to 10109 and is all-in

    Here is where you should be done with the hand. AJs is nice but if your reraised when you open from mid position you have to fold; unless you have him on donkey range.

    Based on your stack you can afford to fold. Still having 17BB after a fold your OK, and you should fold here.

    Your getting a bit less then 2-1, and the only edge you have is if it is a flip to an underpair. AQ-AK AA-JJ all have you in very bad shape, which are all very reasonable given where this push is from.

    Again, if this is complete donkey dazzle then you could argue a call, but I wouldn't call it good.

    I didn't bother looking at results, as the mistake here is overplaying AJ from MP. Let me guess QQ?
  • BuddhaBuddha
    I'd have to agree with Redington. Unless you're up against a maniac, fold the AJ. At a full table, there are just too many hands that can beat you. I'll often play AK for all my money... but AQ or lower... I'll usually often fold if it's re-raised. Depends on the Villain though and your read on him though.
  • DrTyoreDrTyore
    Some devil's advocate...

    Overall I do agree - fold there. Also, I wonder if that raise is a little heavy.... you raise 4x here, which is ~20ish% of your stack... couple that with the fact that blinds are about to go up - presumably to 300/600/50? That means your 9k stack M is going from ~10 to about 6? If you don't want to marry the AJo, fold it PF, if you want to get your $ in, push it all in now and make someone else have to choose.

    A raise of 1500 there leaves you with 7400, or an M of 5 (next level)... it hurts still, but you're in that zone irregardless.

    Now of course, all this depends on reads / table / etc. but I think the smaller raise accomplishes the same goal w/o the risk of being committed...

    Mark
  • westside8westside8
    DrTyore wrote: »
    Some devil's advocate...

    Overall I do agree - fold there. Also, I wonder if that raise is a little heavy.... you raise 4x here, which is ~20ish% of your stack... couple that with the fact that blinds are about to go up - presumably to 300/600/50? That means your 9k stack M is going from ~10 to about 6? If you don't want to marry the AJo, fold it PF, if you want to get your $ in, push it all in now and make someone else have to choose.

    A second thought just to raise discussion. You have an M of 11 right now. Which is borderline shove/fold zone according to Harrington (correct me if I'm wrong as I think 10 is the shove zone). With already 2000 in the pot, would you not just shove preflop on the button (correction to Redington who sad OP was in MP) and just possibly end the hand preflop. No one has shown any strength yet to this point so you do have reason to think you have the best hand...
  • HobbesHobbes

    I didn't bother looking at results, as the mistake here is overplaying AJ from MP. Let me guess QQ?

    I was the button Tyson.
    No real read on the villian other than I had folded to 2 previous reraises (not to him) and thought in the back of my mind that he was simply trying a resteal.
  • HobbesHobbes
    DrTyore wrote: »
    Some devil's advocate...

    Overall I do agree - fold there. Also, I wonder if that raise is a little heavy.... you raise 4x here, which is ~20ish% of your stack... couple that with the fact that blinds are about to go up - presumably to 300/600/50? That means your 9k stack M is going from ~10 to about 6? If you don't want to marry the AJo, fold it PF, if you want to get your $ in, push it all in now and make someone else have to choose.

    A raise of 1500 there leaves you with 7400, or an M of 5 (next level)... it hurts still, but you're in that zone irregardless.

    Now of course, all this depends on reads / table / etc. but I think the smaller raise accomplishes the same goal w/o the risk of being committed...

    Mark

    Bumped the raise up cause of the limpers and that raise should have generally gotten the job done at this table. But yea I should have just shoved PF.
  • RedingtonRedington
    westside8 wrote: »
    A second thought just to raise discussion. You have an M of 11 right now. Which is borderline shove/fold zone according to Harrington (correct me if I'm wrong as I think 10 is the shove zone). With already 2000 in the pot, would you not just shove preflop on the button (correction to Redington who sad OP was in MP) and just possibly end the hand preflop. No one has shown any strength yet to this point so you do have reason to think you have the best hand...

    Sorry, Im such a donk...your right Wes. I thought he was in MP.

    On the button yes, call the shove. Even shove is fine if your commited to calling the 3bet shove anyway. Unless the SB is uncapable of a shove resteal, but unless you had something saying he was tight - ie never reshoved before then yah calling is right.
  • Davis08Davis08
    you guys did a pretty good breakdown here, it should almost go in a "strategy" forum for MP play w/ AJ ^^
  • JohnnieHJohnnieH
    Of course you call and yell "I'll see you in hell $2.75"

    Villian had AK?
  • alorlillyalorlilly
    There is no reason to bet 1600, simply too much. A smaller bet gets the same info from the players to play after you, and a smaller bet may look much stronger to players who limped. They may call the raise but a big chance they will fold post flop to a rep.
    Once the betting mistake has been made preflop, you still need to lay the AJ down. (Everyone knows not to give suited cards any more value than if they were unsuited) You have 6900 chips so no need to panic. I would rather stay in the game, make my next raise with inferior cards, taking the chance you will have better odds against a player who may call this preflop raise.
    alorlilly

    ps. This is my first ever post!
  • HobbesHobbes
    alorlilly wrote: »
    There is no reason to bet 1600, simply too much.

    ps. This is my first ever post!

    With limpers you need to raise more to try and get them out.

    alorlilly wrote: »
    Once the betting mistake has been made preflop, you still need to lay the AJ down. (Everyone knows not to give suited cards any more value than if they were unsuited)
    You have 6900 chips so no need to panic.

    I don't give suited cards more value than they deserve.
    After the break we move to 300/600/75(or 50)

    JohnnieH wrote:
    Of course you call and yell "I'll see you in hell $2.75"

    Villian had AK?

    Would you expect anything less from Stars???
  • ReefAquariumReefAquarium
    This is a good question. I'm struggling with these sorts of issues.

    I'm okay with the bet size preflop. As you say you want to force the limpers out. Blowing 3 limpers off the hand is hard. It starts to commit you to the hand. A really bad scenario is where you commit 25% of you stack and then have to fold.

    Usually I bet a little bit smaller here or just flat call..

    It's hard to find a smaller bet size that does what you want.

    Betting say... 1200 will mean they will only have to call 800 more and the pot size will bloat up to the point where your skill won't matter.

    I can't really think of a good bet size other than the one you chose that will get some folds. But I hate the pot commitment here so I'd rather call preflop.

    Why call?

    1. To let my position do some of the work for me. I'm happy to let the threat of my button position do some of the yelling and screaming and scaring limpers.

    2. Since I'm suited I'm not as afraid of playing a multiway pot.

    3. When I bet 1/4 of my stack it pretty much says to the opponents. Do you want to play for stacks? If I bet $2000 then it pumps the pot size up to $4025? With 6090 behind all the money is going to want to go in.... I might get away but its really hard...

    4. I am a bit afraid of the guys limping in EP. AJs is pretty much at the bottom of their limping range if they know what they are doing (doubtful in a donkament)

    5. Blowing 3 limpers off the hand in a donkament ... This is really tough.

    6. Mainly I don't want to turn my AJs into 72o ... ie get blown off the hand after putting in my chips.
  • PinheadPinhead
    Hobbes wrote: »
    Would you expect anything less from Stars???

    I wouldn't expect less from anybody, anywhere. Live, online, doesn't really matter. Unless this player has done anything to show he is particularly useless you have to respect this bet and fold AJ, play on with the shorter stack and focus on stealing some blinds for a bit. I would be very surprised if somebody could show a reasonable range for the villain where you only need 2:1 to make this call. Is he really doing this with a weaker A? KQ? 22? I guess this all depends on your read of the player but I would be more tempted to give him credit here with the BB and 3 limpers to act.


    Also I'm with the rest that you should either stick it in or just make a slightly smaller raise here, I'll usually make it ~1600 on the button, but if you are worried about playing with 7K at 300/600/50 then you might as well ship in your whole stack and put the decision to the other players.
  • BlondeFishBlondeFish
    I agree with all the decisions you made. Your M=10.8, which is in the Yellow Zone. Shoving immediately with only AJ is premature and -EV since there are three limpers who have you covered plus two more potential callers. With three limpers and on the button, Harrington's conservative strategy would be to raise only with TT+ or AQs+, but raising with AJs is a reasonable aggressive alternative.

    You are getting 1.67:1 pot odds to call the all-in reraise. Your breakeven win percentage is 37.5%, i.e., it would be +EV to call if your probability of winning against villain's range of hands is at least 37.5%. If you put the villain's range to be the top 10% of hands (88+, A9s+, AJo+, KTs+, KQo+, QTs+), then your equity is 46.3% and you should call.

    Your EV = 46.3% * (+11,545 in pot) + 53.7% * (- 6920 call)
    = +1,629

    Unless you are the best player in the tournament, you do not want to pass up on substantially +EV opportunities such as this. Only if you think that villain would raise all-in with only the top 5% of hands (99+, AK, AQs) would it be correct to fold. Folding would leave you with an M of 8.4. BTW, who is the "Jeff" that agrees?
    Hobbes wrote: »
    I am getting about 2:1 on my call and if I fold I am short. Think it's an autocall here hoping for a race (and Jeff agrees).
  • BBC ZBBC Z
    I am getting about 2:1 on my call and if I fold I am short

    I disagree, you'll have 6K of chips, M of like 8ish.. which is yellow and not red.
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