PLO Satty....wtf to do here
Don't have the HH, but here's the situation:
$69 PLO satty ($216 ticket).....9 seats, 10th $75, 11th $24.....playing 11-handed (of course I'm on the 5-handed table)
blinds 500-1000......I'm sitting 9th in chips ATM:
BB: HERO (2400)
UTG: ........(3500)
UTG+1: .....(4000)
Button: .....(1900)
SB: ...........(18,000)
Action:
UTG: folds
UTG+1: folds
Button: All-in
SB: Call
HERO: (Ad Ac 7d 8s)???????????
$69 PLO satty ($216 ticket).....9 seats, 10th $75, 11th $24.....playing 11-handed (of course I'm on the 5-handed table)
blinds 500-1000......I'm sitting 9th in chips ATM:
BB: HERO (2400)
UTG: ........(3500)
UTG+1: .....(4000)
Button: .....(1900)
SB: ...........(18,000)
Action:
UTG: folds
UTG+1: folds
Button: All-in
SB: Call
HERO: (Ad Ac 7d 8s)???????????
Comments
You have the best hand, and the AA helps too
Mark
You are probably dominating the Button. SB calls for cheap and maybe to get to the $$$. If he loses it does not affect him too badly, so I think you're ahead atm. But, I admittedly suck, so judge accordingly . . .
Break out the ICM calculator!
If you win , your equity goes up about five bucks (10th of fifty bucks.)
Without the payout structure, we can't figure out how much your equity goes down if you lose....
Payout is noted above
Yes, it's PLO, not PLO8
OBV we have AA's here, but against some hands in PLO, you're not much better than a coin flip.
If big stack folds.......it's a snap call. When he calls (which I expect him to 100% with any 4 cards in that spot) it now becomes open for debate whether to call, ship or fold.
You have to put your money in here. You're the second shortest stack at the table, the shortest one is in already. Here's the reasons for calling
A: It doubles the chances of eliminating the shortest stack
B: You have an extremely well coordinated hand that provides three likely ways to win (set, straight, flush possibilities)
C: You're getting nearly 3:1 on your money if you get it all in.
here's the reasons to fold
A: Maybe if I fold I can possibly survive until one of the other big stacks is kind enough to take out the medium sized stacks and I can squeak by that last position - unless the small stack manages to double up on THIS round, then I have to squeak by two positions.
Folding guarantees you become the smallest stack on the table, either you're 10/10, or 11/11 if the micro stack doubles. Oh, and let's not forget folding means you're stuck for another 20% of your stack when it's your SB next.
CALL - there is no debate or question here. edit: Sorry, put yourself all in.
Mark
11th was the guy pushing on the button....I ended up calling....which means, even though I was in 9th, the blinds would blind me out before the guy in 10th if we folded out (I don't have his exact chip count, but that would've been my deciding factor).
You probably only have 35-40% equity here so if you were one of the larger stacks and it was folded to you on the button and you raised with this hand and 2 even larger stacks went re-raise/shove in the blinds you could certainly let it go.
Not sure what your plan is here if you fold other than a lot of divine intervention to get one of the tickets, so shrug your shoulders and put in the chips.
PLO Satty's are like interspecies relationships....you gotta do things you really never thought of doing.
Here's the way I look at it:
To get my ticket, I will
A: have to get extremely lucky (ie. braindead midstack losing his mind and playing a pot against big stack)...this does happen, but rare
B: have to win a minimum 1 more pot (and 1 pot would probably get me there)
Now, if I try to win this particular pot, I have to win a 3-way AIPF.....I don't like those odds.
If I fold to my BB, I give someone else a chance to make an error, or, worst case, I go in against likely a 2 or 3 way pot. Although my odds aren't as good to win a 3-way with any 4 cards as they are with these particular 4 cards.
It's 2 days later, and I'm still second guessing myself on this one.
Stop it.. putting yourself all in was 100% the right move.
I don't care that it was a satellite. You have the SB coming up next, you will potentially be in a blind again in 3 hands. If you think your stack size push of 2x the BB is going to buy you a pot you're wrong. FURTHER, the hand you have gives you a SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER CHANCE OF WINNING MORE MONEY NOW
I don't care what fucking model people pull out, folding is stupid here.
Mark
lol......OK, OK.....Mark says call or you're an idiot
fyi......I tend to agree...but I just want other opinions.....ie, what does the math say?
This thread sucks.
/thread.
I just threw up in my mouth, and more than a little . . .
Push and pray...
That is why I said if the stacks were deep (ie: he was a big stack and the other two who went all in were big stacks) that this would be a very viable folds.
I totally understand the point being made that if only one pot needs to be won then a HU one is better than this 3 way even if against semi random hands, but the reality is that if you fold and then win an all in that will not be a guarantee that you will get the ticket easily.
Win this 3 way and your odds go up a ton.
This seems a lot more a stack dynamic issue that forces an uncomfortable play. Not much more. The AA is the nuts point as a reason for playing it as if it was AA in no limit is kind of amusing.
The thought of laying it down is kind of amusing.
No need to be weak with AA.... unreal.
poker is a game of gambling. roll the fucking dice.
Until you get this right, you'll never show a profit long term.
If stacks were deep this is a raise not a fold. Against a late pos raiser and and SB call im raising 100% of the time. In fact I think the only bad thing you could do if stacks were deep is fold. Calling is also terrible. You most definetely have the best hand, so why fold?
AAJ10 would be an easy shove, but given the equity your hand has and, if either player is playing a rundown like 78910, you have some blockers in the 78.
I never lay this down in this position.
This is a strange conversation to be honest because I have no idea if some of you even know how the odds in Omaha work.
In this case this is a shove because of the stack sizes but the odds are he will only have 35-40% equity with his hand even thoughit is an AA hand. In fact, bad AAxx hands could be as low as 20-25% equity in 3 ways when up against anohther AAxx hand and a nice double suited rundown hands as well.
Thus, if you have an AAxx hand in this satellite with a relatively LARGE stack and two other relatively LARGE stacks are effectively all in, it is an easy fold because your equity will only be in the 35-40% range and if you have a relatively LARGE stack the odds are you will win a seat anyway, so you are risking a relatively safe stack because you think you have the "best hand" or because poker is a gambling game or whatever silliness that other guy said.
Poker is about winning money, so in this case the OPs stack was small, so the shove was the opportunity for him to win the 1 all in he needed to win to obtain a relatively safe stack.
Those thinking this is an easy shove regardless of stacks, the NL equivalent would be the following
You are dealt AhKs and the other two guys have hands like 9d9s and QcJc
They are both all in, what do you do?
Great post Monty.....but what would your final decision be?.....fold?
I will make some assumptions (which I will explain) to make the math simpler….
The main point I will try to prove is that the math says to call, so where the numbers need to be fudged, I will fudge AWAY from that hypothesis.
If we fold at this point, I would estimate that the small stack will be ahead about an average of 60/40
If the small stack wins, then I would give our chances of winning each prize at 10% for a 216, 15% for a 75, and 75% at a $24. (We are extraemely short, and everyone else will be waiting for us to bust).
If the large stack wins, then I would give our chances of winning each prize at 20% for a 216, and 80% for a 75.
Given all of these values, our equity when we fold is $71.79
If we call, then there are 4 scenarios that can play out:
We win – and come close to tripling up. In this case we will have about the average in chips. In this case I will use the case that we will have an equity of (216*9 + 75)/10 or $201.90. This is probably low, but as I said I will move away from the true amounts to make the math simpler.
We lose to the small stack, but beat the big stack. In this case I will use the smallest amount we could win (we still do have 1000 chips left, but using the smallest amount we could win gives us the worst odds if we play) - $24
We lose to the big stack, but the small stack does also. In this case we will win 10th place - $75.
We lose to the small stack, and the big stack wins the side pot. In that case we win 11th place money - $24
(I know that ties can happen, but we will ignore tham for math simplicity).
If we assign our winning percentage as x, then will will assign the winning percentage of the small stack to be 0.6 * (1-x), and the winning percentage of the big stck to be 0.4 * (1-x)
The break even percentage for x is 17.4% (making the small stack a 49.6% chance to win, and the big stack a 33% chance to win).
We would win the pot 17.4% of the time (17.4% * 216.9 = 35.13)
We will lose to the small stack, but beat the big stack 17.1% of the time (17.1% * 24 = 4.10)
We will lose to the big stack, along with the small stack 33.04% of the time (33.04% * 75 = 24.78)
We will lose to the small stack, and the big stack 32.46% of the time (32.45% * 24 = 7.79)
35.13 + 4.10 + 24.78 + 7.79 = 71.80
Obviously, with aces in our hands, our winning percentage is a heck of a lot better than 17.4%. If we go up to 40% which is more realistic, then our equity is $107.40. It would be a $35.60 mistake to fold – over half the value that we put into the tournament!!
We are putting in to much of our stack (41.7%), and we have to put in a large amound of our already diminished stack on the next hand if we fold (35.7%) for anything but a shove to be correct with pretty well any hand. It is hard to be so dominated that we don’t have a 17.4% chance of winning – especially with aces in our hand!
It is because our stack in very low in the OP that folding is nowhere close to the right decision.
If the stacks are deep then the question is closer to this:
You are in a NLHE satellite where 9 people get $500, and 10th and below get 0. There are 10 players left in the tourney. One player goes all in, and another player with an equal stack calls. You look at your cards and see AA. What do you do?
(Hint: If you do anything but muck your aces, you should have your poker license revoked!)
Sorry I misunderstood montey's post. IN THIS EXACT SPOT where everyone is deep EXCEPT villian who shoves, SB calls, and we are 2 away from a ticket then yes I would say its a fold.
If EVERYONE is deeper (M>10) I raise Pot 100% of the time in this spot.
To answer your question, I call and check it down with 2nd villian.
You're putting in 1900 of your 2400 chips. Why would you not put the rest in when your hand is most likely the best between the 2 of you??
If you don't put the money in then, what do you do if the large stack puts you all in on a flop that you did not hit?? Remember, you will only have 500 back (that you have to put in as the small blind on the next hand) and the pot will be 6200.
The 500 means nothing to the big stack. They will most likely NOT just check it down if they catch anything that can beat an overpair, or catch anything at all for that matter.
I actually did only call in this spot. Reasoning is quite simple.....SB is calling the shove 100%, so I didn't really have anything to gain by shoving.
I would prefer to check it down to leave myself another 'shot' if I lose, but if SB bets out, I'd snap call any flop....or turn.....evaluate river (as that would be the least likely air bet).
nice, tks for your breakdown.......this is similar to what I was thinking with out writing it out.
You said if stacks are deep, not sitting on 3 bbs.