Hand analysis

DrTyore

Okay.. I'll take all the surprises out of this one, but I win this hand... .massive pot (for the limits!)

Pertinant information / my thoughts bolded

Anyways....

STAGE #433675700: HOLDEM NO LIMIT $0.50 - 2006-08-25 16:52:20 (ET)
Table: TEMPLE DR. (Real Money) Seat #2 is the dealer

Seat 2 - RUNNR_RUNNR ($23.95 in chips)
Seat 3 - GOBIGTIME1 ($127.37 in chips)  --> Gambler, VP$P 50%, goes to showdown 25%
Seat 4 - DRTYORE ($46.80 in chips)        --> Our hero, SLAA in pokertrack, but damned handsome
Seat 5 - SOGGYBOTTUM ($26.25 in chips)
Seat 6 - MATTEO02 ($16.30 in chips)
Seat 7 - DOUGAL247 ($24.23 in chips)    --> TPP, VP$P 16%, goes to showdown 15%, wins 33%
Seat 8 - MY5CENTS ($16.25 in chips)
Seat 9 - THE_WAITER ($16.85 in chips)   -->  New to table, bought in for $20 (out of 100)
GOBIGTIME1 - Posts small blind $0.25
DRTYORE - Posts big blind $0.50

<POT IS $2>

*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to DRTYORE [9c Kc]
SOGGYBOTTUM - Folds
MATTEO02 - Folds
DOUGAL247 - Calls $0.50
MY5CENTS - Folds
THE_WAITER - Calls $0.50
RUNNR_RUNNR - Folds
GOBIGTIME1 - Calls $0.25
DRTYORE - Checks       

*** FLOP *** [8s 10s 7c]
<Okay, OESD, and runner runner flush possible>

GOBIGTIME1 - Bets $2    -->  Means nothing to me from this guy
DRTYORE - Calls $2
DOUGAL247 - Raises $5 to $5 --> Can't imagine he has J9 from that position, possibly top pair, worst case a set
THE_WAITER - Calls $5 -->  No read, but I assume he got a piece of it, and is hoping it will hold up.  Maybe a flush draw?
GOBIGTIME1 - Calls $3    --> Okay, this makes the odds pretty tempting, pot is $19, and it's $3 to call
DRTYORE - Calls $3     --> Does everyone else do this?  I didn't think folding was a good idea, but maybe a re-raise?

<POT IS $22>

*** TURN *** [8s 10s 7c] [2c]

Helps along that backdoor straight draw, nice to see... though I do have a mildly upsetting thought of A10c being out there

GOBIGTIME1 - Checks
DRTYORE - Checks
DOUGAL247 - Bets $8 -->  Yea... by now I'm thinking he's got a set, or an overpair, maybe JJ?
THE_WAITER - All-In(Raise) $11.35 to $11.35  -->  If he's gonna call, may as well go all in, little to do with my decision
GOBIGTIME1 - Folds    -->  Damn... I'm shocked!

Okay... so... pot is now $41.65, and there cannot be a re-raise from Dougal

DRTYORE - Calls $11.35  -->  About 3.6:1 odds for a draw of (best realistic case) 15 outs - 9 clubs, 3 jacks, 3 6s... is this an insta-call?  BTW.. Implied odds are probably "roughly" $7.38

DOUGAL247 - Calls $3.35 -->  Well, duh!

*** RIVER *** [8s 10s 7c 2c] [6c]
DRTYORE - Bets $5.50  -->  I think I'm good, let's entice him in there
DOUGAL247 - All-In(Raise) $7.38 to $7.38  -->  Once again, I think he's committed
DRTYORE - Calls $1.88
*** SHOW DOWN ***
DOUGAL247 - Shows [8c 8h] (Three of a kind, eights) -->  Hey!  Read was right
THE_WAITER - Shows [10h 9h] (Straight, six to ten) -->  Ugh... he was chopping 8 of my flop outs, 6 of my turn outs
DRTYORE - Shows [9c Kc] (Flush, king high)
DRTYORE Collects $14.14 from side pot-1
DRTYORE Collects $53.67 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total Pot($70.81:$56.05,$14.76) | Rake ($3:$2.38,$0.62)
Board [8s 10s 7c 2c 6c]
Seat 2: RUNNR_RUNNR (dealer) Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 3: GOBIGTIME1 (small blind) Folded on the TURN
Seat 4: DRTYORE (big blind) won Total ($67.81) HI:($67.81) with Flush, king high [9c Kc - P:Kc,P:9c,B:7c,B:6c,B:2c]
Seat 5: SOGGYBOTTUM Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 6: MATTEO02 Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 7: DOUGAL247 HI:lost with Three of a kind, eights [8c 8h - B:8s,P:8h,P:8c,B:10s,B:7c]
Seat 8: MY5CENTS Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 9: THE_WAITER HI:lost with Straight, six to ten [10h 9h - B:10s,P:9h,B:8s,B:7c,B:6c]


Anyways.... my questions

1.  Did I over-value my draw(s)?  Or was I right to do so with so many callers?

2.  At any point do you think I'm drawing to a chop / dead?  And if so, how does chopping odds figure into you outs calculations?

3.  I had been taking a beating in this session (3 tabling) and I'm wondering how much of this hand is attributable to "tilt".

Anyways... intelligent discourse please... no "you should go all in more"

Mark

ScoobyD

I think you played it fine.

Couple things.

Initial flop call might be a little sketchy (only because you have 2 players behind you to act, but I guess if your read was that they were passive then it's not too bad).

Estimating your outs on the turn: If you felt strongly that you were up against a set, then you can't really count the clubs that pair the board as full outs, since it will fill him. Best case you have 9 outs, worst you have like 7. But I guess you thought an overpair was equallly likely. So this is splitting hairs.

In hindsight (I missed it too), the 6 outs for the straight might only give you a chop, so those should possibly be slightly discounted. I think given the 2nd player called the allin though, that there's almost no way I'm throwing a draw this strong away.

beanie42

I think the play overall is ok, considering the level of these players. I'd feel pretty sure if I hit the flush, but I would assume the straight will chop a good portion of the time against this many players. Bottom line, the odds made you do it ... nice catch .

DrTyore

ScoobyD wrote:

Initial flop call might be a little sketchy (only because you have 2 players behind you to act, but I guess if your read was that they were passive then it's not too bad).

I was BB.. no "call" was necessary, simply checked it.

I've run it through pokertracker and the outs calculations say I was right on each call based on my outs. However, I wonder if you have to do some "tricky" calculations for possible chops.

I also discounted some outs each time because of the club draw, so even with 7 outs the $3 was right, and at the end, the call is right even with the potential board pairing outs.

Mark

Meistro

Hand is played fine until the river; he has $8ish left? and you bet $5ish into a giant pot? That's silly Bet enough to put him all in unless he has > pot left.

ScoobyD

I was BB.. no "call" was necessary, simply checked it.

Flop call, not preflop.

DrTyore

ScoobyD wrote:

I was BB.. no "call" was necessary, simply checked it.

Flop call, not preflop.

My bad... I misread what I thought was your misread about my post, but instead I should have read that my read was what you were questioning when you read what I wrote, before I wrote the other stuff to read.

Gotcha.

Mark

jpajamas

Looks good, I concure with the more literally adept members of the forum...

bdiddy69

Initial flop call was a small mistake IMO, you could be drawing to a losing hand or a chop plus theres two more left to act after you. The rest of the hand is standard.

As for your analysis, maybe you should have considered your straight outs to be half outs, since by the play it looks like someone else could easily have a 9 (ie 9-10 or 8-9 most likely).

Metro

Running clubs - no wonder your name is phonetic

Quick analysis:

Preflop - free check - easy.

Flop - All depends on the players - once you have called the $2, I am probably calling the re-reaise. IMO the guy who had trip 8s should have raised more. I would bet out the pot there get to rid of those on a draw. You love flopping a set - but you dont want some donk with a 9 catching his str8 for free

His poor raise is why you called. I assumed if he raised the pot - making you put in $6 more you arent calling.

Turn: Now your hand is great - the clubs werent on the flop so your likely not drawing against a better flush draw. Again $8 into a pot of $22. If the player believe he is ahead this isnt the time to value bet. There is a straight and a flush draw on the board. If you think your set is good - bet this hard. I like your call.

River: Well that played itself.

Trevor said the other day "you dont have to play poorly to make other players think you are a bad player"

This is a perfect example Trip8s is probably still talking about the guy who stuck around for runner runner flush

Players are always complaining about being sucked out or having their big hands beat on the river -


Sometimes the cards F%ck you, but in general most people F%ck themselves.