What's the more EV play?
I was playing $0.5/$1 NL on Stars. I open raised AK in MP. Called only by the button. Flop cam AK2 rainbow. I did a continuation bet without hesitation and the button folded. I then pondered.
I'm wondering that since villain has a very low likelihood of having one of the few hands that are ahead of us (AA, KK, 22), is checking and hoping for a bet the more EV play?
I know some of you may say that you've got to bet to get rid of draws but the best that villain could be drawing to is 3 outs.
I'm wondering that since villain has a very low likelihood of having one of the few hands that are ahead of us (AA, KK, 22), is checking and hoping for a bet the more EV play?
I know some of you may say that you've got to bet to get rid of draws but the best that villain could be drawing to is 3 outs.
Comments
While he may have only 3 outs if on a draw, checking may let him get there assuming he checks after and then you are in a more difficult spot spot even if he is just bluffing. This can happen if a Q J 10 or possibly even a 2 hits (A2 suited who knows I've seen stranger at the $100 buy in level).
What may also happen with a check (then he checks) is that a second card of a suit may fall on the turn which may set him up with a flush draw. Then you need to bet even stronger to make a potential flush draw make a mistake to call which also results in him folding most other hands you want him to continue playing such as a weak ace.
Sure, these scenarios are unlikely but similarly the extra value you will gain by inducing a stone cold bluff by checking is small. Also a check may let the other player off cheap with a hand that would have called a bet on the flop but will not after a turn. Say button has A9 suited you check he checks then another king falls. He likely will not call much at all any more.
All of this ignores the type of player the button is which does matter as well in the equation, but without that I would still say continuation bet and hope he has a hand that is good enough to play. If he does not you likely have not lost much in added value anyways.
Is it someone who auto-bets when someone shows weakness? Is he a nit that only bets with the nuts? Is he a passive calling station?
This here is the important information for getting the most value out of your hand.
As a default play, you have a big hand and you need to get some cash in the middle to get paid on it. The sooner you bet your big hands the more likely you are to get paid by someone with a dominated hand or a draw. There are lots of players who will pay to draw on the flop and then give up on the turn. Get that extra bet out of him while you can.
Top 2 is a strong hand and you should hope to win a medium to good size pot. But if stacks end up in the middle against an aggro-donk you are likely good and against a solid player or a nit you are likely behind.
Your monster hands (flopped sets, straights, and flushes) will likely even out with your cooler hands at the end of the day. Your profits come from all those value bets you can get called.
Cliffs Notes: Value bet that Shit
In absence of that info you must bet, so now I'd like to know how much you'd all elect to bet.
Until Quimby steps in with the numbers; can we just use a rough % of pot?
I know that a 2.5x raise pf deserves a different bet then a 4x raise but what I've been debating lately: which is more profitable, the chump bet vs. the big(ish) bet, and I'd like to see your leanings in a vacuum.
Looking forward to your ideas.
I like 2/3 of the pot here for 2 reasons:
1. Keeps the pot smaller than a pot size bet and against most players we are not looking to play for stacks.
2. Is more likely to elicit a call from someone who is either drawing, holding a weaker Ace or someone who sees this bet as possible weakness and is willing to float because he has position.
When you consider all of the possible lines that you can take with this hand there is a ton of profitability against the right opponent. Every one of these opportunities start with a C-Bet on the flop.
DonChevalier is 16.9/10 over 261 hands (full ring). 4.33 Flop AF, less on turn and river. I suppose given his stats he would likely bet that flop from the button. I don’t use a HUD so I didn't have access to the AF at the time.
POKERSTARS GAME #13134312237: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007/11/09 - 12:23:05 (ET)
Table 'Virtus II' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: DonChevalier ($97.65 in chips)
Seat 2: alegal ($98.50 in chips)
Seat 3: jkpickett ($108.15 in chips)
Seat 4: LaMathRacK ($61.10 in chips)
Seat 5: spence79 ($190.90 in chips)
Seat 6: kelly_kabob ($101.50 in chips)
Seat 7: Kingcovey ($100 in chips)
Seat 8: moduse ($315.05 in chips)
Seat 9: GAZELLE4 ($92.20 in chips)
jkpickett: posts small blind $0.50
LaMathRacK: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to kelly_kabob [Ad Ks]
spence79: folds
kelly_kabob: raises $2 to $3
Kingcovey: folds
moduse: folds
GAZELLE4: folds
DonChevalier: calls $3
alegal: folds
jkpickett: folds
LaMathRacK: folds
*** FLOP *** [Kd As 2h]
kelly_kabob: bets $4
DonChevalier: folds
kelly_kabob collected $7.15 from pot
I don't play much Full Ring. But I would assume at FR his pre-flop stats are pretty taggy. You are right his Flop AF is very aggro.
You could probably make a case for an occasional check raise here on the flop.
If you wanted to mix it up a bit you could play the hand like you are on a straight draw. Check call the flop and then check-raise on a safe turn (assuming he obliges with a turn bet).
Mixing up your line here can get some hero calls from people who get confused by your line.
I would still lean toward C-betting the flop as rule.
In this particular case, if there is enough likelihood that the puck will bet, then check-raising can be a higher EV play. Somebody else can post the EV calculations for a change!
Why do you consider the 1/2 pot bet to be ideal in this situation?
I am also interested in you describing a typical situation where you would find it +EV to bet 1/3 pot in a cash game. If you would describe opponents tendencies as well as your own table image I would appreciate it.
Thanks in Advance BlondeFish.
I am hoping you chime in as well Kristy. You seem to be an advocate of smallish flop bets as well and I would like a better understanding of this strategy.
Wait.. What hand is going to make a move at you with an AK2 flop after open raising preflop? QQ? Sorry dude.. The hand is over.
What hand is going to make a play after I raise preflop and bet the flop on an AK2 board? I think very, very few.
I think that more typical aggressive players might try to take the pot away with a flop bet if they have position and I check into them, possibly letting them believe I have a small or mid pair and I'm scared of that board.
smallish- because the likelyhood that he has a hand that he'll continue with on that flop is low- 1/2 just feels more like a steal and invites a resteal (thus making him a 'chump' and it a 'chump bet')
I do lame, lame stuff too like:
he's got 1127 chips, pot is 300
my bet is 127
you'd be surprised how many guys lose their damn minds.
(the same thing happens later when you put people all in to the dollar..esp. live- not certain if this is a girl-thing)
Say villan has AQ-A9 on the button. He calls your raise pre-flop. This is very reasonable for a wide range of opponenents and there are about a million ways to make that range of hands (64 actually).
An A flops and you C-bet into him...
If you are suggesting that villian lays this hand down 100% of the time then I suggest that you give small stakes players too much credit.
There are tons of players who will float you on the flop and maybe even on the turn with a weaker A to see if you will give up.
1. If you go for a check raise you will very likely get one more bet out of your opponent and the hand will be over(this line gives up a ton of value).
2. If you C-bet and he floats you and then you check raise the turn you win two more bets.
3. If you fire at the flop, the turn and then check call the river you could make even more money.
You obviously need some reads to make these plays and the board texture as the hand progresses is important.
The point is that you should expect to win a good size pot after flopping top 2 on that rainbow board if you can get the villian to play with you. In order to do this you have to start building the pot on the flop (period).
Kristy -- Do you run poker traker? If you do what are your VPIP, PFR, and Cbet #'s?
Do you would have some slightly LAG numbers?
If you flop Top Pair Top Kicker with position what would be you bet sizing and tenenancies?
eg.
Bet the Pot 50%
3/4 20%
1/2 20%
1/3 10%
The reason I ask is because I am a 3/4 to Full pot about 90% of the time when I bet on the flop and I am hoping you can teach me a bit.
I like your ideas here for sure!!
85% fold to a flop raise is likely accurate for only the nittiest of nits and you'll never win much off this guy anyway.
Ax is such a big chunk of villans range that you should expect a lot more calls than that.
Cheers