Hand from forum trny.
I doubt he's calling my utg raise light here with my stack getting short. And he pot comitts himself with the flop bet. Maybe AK and he's ahead and I have outs, maybe AQ with a diamond and I'm ahead or AK with a d and I'm screwed?
Who shoves who folds?
*********** # 15 **************
PokerStars Game #13490972205: Tournament #65104523, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2007/11/26 - 21:09:58 (ET)
Table '65104523 2' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Gide_ (2515 in chips)
Seat 3: stpboy77 (1135 in chips)
Seat 4: Woog30 (2715 in chips)
Seat 5: Akala16 (1095 in chips)
Seat 8: Buzzzardd (3120 in chips)
Seat 9: BAshfield11 (1420 in chips)
stpboy77: posts small blind 25
Woog30: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Akala16 [Js Jd]
Akala16: raises 150 to 200
Buzzzardd: folds
BAshfield11: folds
Gide_: folds
Buzzzardd said, "that was lucky"
stpboy77: folds
Woog30: calls 150
*** FLOP *** [3d Td Kd]
Woog30: bets 350
Akala16: folds
Woog30 collected 425 from pot
Woog30: doesn't show hand
Who shoves who folds?
*********** # 15 **************
PokerStars Game #13490972205: Tournament #65104523, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2007/11/26 - 21:09:58 (ET)
Table '65104523 2' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Gide_ (2515 in chips)
Seat 3: stpboy77 (1135 in chips)
Seat 4: Woog30 (2715 in chips)
Seat 5: Akala16 (1095 in chips)
Seat 8: Buzzzardd (3120 in chips)
Seat 9: BAshfield11 (1420 in chips)
stpboy77: posts small blind 25
Woog30: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Akala16 [Js Jd]
Akala16: raises 150 to 200
Buzzzardd: folds
BAshfield11: folds
Gide_: folds
Buzzzardd said, "that was lucky"
stpboy77: folds
Woog30: calls 150
*** FLOP *** [3d Td Kd]
Woog30: bets 350
Akala16: folds
Woog30 collected 425 from pot
Woog30: doesn't show hand
Comments
The wrong move would be to check to you and let you go all in.
1. You could be ahead right now.
2. Your flush draw could be live
3. He could be bluffing and will fold to a push
4. Your have too much equity to fold
This is a perfect spot for the bet he has made because for less than 10% of his stack he has:
1. Put a decision on you for all of your chippies
2. Pretty solid fold equity
Whitehorse. Why don't you put him on a range of hands and pokerstove it.
Post your results.
I will post my hand a little later to leave this up for discussion.
I play at least once a week with Roger. He claims he only plays quality hands and I know he would never lie to me.
fold
He has a monster draw and puts you on AK, etc and he wants you to shove over top on him so he can call.
1. If you miss the flop he can win out right.
2. If you hit the flop he is not folding so he might as well lead out. 350 into 475 seems rather high but considering your stack it seems like he wants you to shove.
Now the next scenario he has hit the board and has kicker problems. He needs to lead out to see where he is at. Two pair will check to you as well as a set. At this point I am not afraid of a flush draw heads up as I know with a 4x raise you are definitely going to CB the flop if I check to you so he may be thinking the same thing.
Its hard to keep going with that board (overpair, flush draw, straight draw) I would lay it down...the blinds are low enough that you can fight another day.
Thanks Dave it's about time you started to believe me...lol
I called your original raise with K10s (150 into a pot of 275), understanding that your stack is getting shorter and I could get away easily if I don't hit big. I bet out to avoid you checking behind to allow another diamond to roll off. If you have AA or AK your still putting your chips in and possibly QQ, JJ or AQ that includes a diamond. AA with a diamond is about a 2% favourite, all other hands except for KK and 1010(which I'm dead or close to) I'm about 55 to 60% favourite.
I'd like to hear other opinions on my thought process.
I would have ended up going all in on you hoping you didn't catch the K. But as it turns out my luck would have run out
woog30... fold KT preflop... you dont hit big near enough to make this call against that stack size.
Where's the love?
For such a brief encounter during the tourney your read could not get any closer to the truth. I never try to steal a pot therefore folding anytime I bet to you will be beneficial if your at Dave's on Saturday.
He knocked me out when he called with K-J and hit 4 F'n kings.
(Only a donkey would make that call.) Mike Matusow
I think in this situation a check is not a bad thing, you are heads up and if indeed he is on a flush draw you find out on the flop if he checks, otherwise the only play there for the original raiser is to bet out. Then you CR and get all his money in. You also save yourself if a flush comes because you know on the turn he may value bet it and you still have outs to pair the board and you can easily get away from the 2 pair if you miss on the river.
With the bet on the flop and then he calls you know right away he is drawing and if he does have AX, he is priced in because at that point if he did raise with AQ, AJ, he is also drawing to a straight with two cards to come.
Either way you played the hand thinking of the flush draw on the flop, so you did play accordingly. If you actually look at the probability of flopping a flush draw heads up with a 4x bet range with that board it may be a little slimmer.
Good bet, good fold
Board: 3d 9d Kd
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 66.514% 66.33% 00.18% 131993 363.00 { JdJs }
Hand 1: 33.486% 33.30% 00.18% 66271 363.00 { 22+, A4s+, K9s+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, A9o+, KTo+ }
Your equity is obv huge in this spot. Knowing his hand it looks like a good fold but long term, this play is a loser.
Flame away...
I was being situational, I spent most of the tourney with woog30 on my immediate right.
I said fold definitively only to that specific player in that specific tournament in that specific set of circumstances.
We don't have to drop out many hands from Caddy's range (some of the smaller pairs and a few of the weaker gappers) and we get a neg equity.
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
107,910 games 0.005 secs 21,582,000 games/sec
Board: 3d 9d Kd
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.855% 47.53% 00.33% 51289 351.00 { JdJs }
Hand 1: 52.145% 51.82% 00.33% 55919 351.00 { 88+, 33, AKs, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, A9s, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, KTs+, QdJd, QdTd, JdTd, J9s, T9s, AKo, AdQc, AdQh, AdQs, AdJc, AdJh, AdJs, AdTc, AdTh, AdTs, A9o, KTo+ }
A case can be made for my range being bit a wide here. I used the following to come up with it:
- What might an avg villain call with in a 6 handed game while getting a discount from the BB?
I figured on roughly 20%
- Would he be capable of donking 7% of his stack with his entire range against this monotone flop?
I figured he absolutely could do this because he has huge fold equity against a huge chunk of the origional rasiers range.
Admittedly the range is likely a bit heavy
It is both a combination of pot equity + fold equity that makes a shove for Whitehorse +EV
The difference is fractional
Let me clarify.
Whether it is 9H or 10H doesn't make a big difference when we are considering a range. It makes a difference if you pokerstove the exact hands but that is not realistic because we won't know that his donk bet on the flop means he holds top 2 pair. We never know our opponents exact holding that is why we put him on a range and continually narrow the range as more information becomes available.
Unfortunately, when we start the hand with an M of less than 15 we are not going to be getting 4 streets worth of information.
It also makes very little difference whether he has a pair of Kings or Kings-up in this situation. Both hands are the same in the effect that if we are behind when the money goes in we have 11 outs twice to improve.
Certainly the point wasn't to call out a forum member. He called a bit light ..but I guess with his stack he's getting close to callng light. I think the flop bet is good given the board.
Cady, thanks for poker stove...but Arag vs. utg raise vs. TAG/TP is bad IMO
A couple good players like the fold.. but shove vs. random seems to be the concenus.. I guess
Ok but I don't think that after Woog's bet that Woog has any fold equity. If Whitehorse shoves the pot is 1320 and Woog will be getting 2.4:1 to call.
If Woog is doing this on a pure bluff, with the expectation of folding to a shove it is admittedly a brilliant move. But then we are expecting lvl 3 thinking out of both players.
I think the simplest explanation is usually the correct one. Woog's bet means he has a piece of the flop. If he has a pair or a draw then Woog has no fold equity.
I will rerun Pokerstove and see what the numbers are. I didn't realize it was a 10 and gives Woog a few more drawing hands that he could be holding.
That was my point, heads up with a 4x raise you call OOP and then hit 2 pair....a check on the flop produces a CR because the short stack should have raised with the intention of either shoving on the flop to a check or folding to a bet with JJ if they don't hit.
If you flop that monster you want to get your money in ASAP and induce the shove.
This is not a cash game or a vacuum, this is a tournament ending hand. Eff the long run, and %'s in this instance. (save as a conversable tangent) The fact that I knew JJ was no good definitively and I'd been playing Woog just as long as Whitehorse, should effectively prove my point.
The answer is work on your reads and the ranges that you are alloting your players -you've got a slight hole in an otherwise very well rounded game.
All the math in the world can show a long term play is correct...but why wouldn't you strive to make the correct action based on the information actually infront of you?
Am I explaining well?...stop staring at your pokerstove and have a look at the people around you now and then.
LOL. I am glad you were playing in this tournament and had a read. Unfortunately I wasn't there and following was the only information actually infront of (me).
Watts seems to agree with a shove here why don't you ask him to explain it to you.
LOL!!!! That just happened.
I'll really shut up then.