25NL 3 bet pot - River decision
Villain is fairly competent. VPIP 22 PFR 17 over 100 or so hands.
I have 3 bet him a couple of times before and he has fold both times.
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com
Hero (SB) ($30.96)
BB ($25)
UTG ($25.70)
MP ($37.76)
Button ($56.20)
Preflop: Hero is SB with 10c, 10h
2 folds, Button bets $0.85, Hero raises to $3, 1 fold, Button calls $2.15
Flop: ($6.25) Jh, Ac, 8c (2 players)
Hero bets $3.50, Button calls $3.50
Turn: ($13.25) Jd (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks
River: ? ($13.25) 6d (2 players)
Hero?
Are we done here?
Are we ahead?
What does he likely hold?
What is our plan?
I have 3 bet him a couple of times before and he has fold both times.
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com
Hero (SB) ($30.96)
BB ($25)
UTG ($25.70)
MP ($37.76)
Button ($56.20)
Preflop: Hero is SB with 10c, 10h
2 folds, Button bets $0.85, Hero raises to $3, 1 fold, Button calls $2.15
Flop: ($6.25) Jh, Ac, 8c (2 players)
Hero bets $3.50, Button calls $3.50
Turn: ($13.25) Jd (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks
River: ? ($13.25) 6d (2 players)
Hero?
Are we done here?
Are we ahead?
What does he likely hold?
What is our plan?
Comments
I wouldn't be surprised here if he wakes up with AX or JX. Flush draw/straight draw is remote but I think as played you don't have enough information to make a value bet on the river.
The only time I bet the river is if in this case I put a bet out on the turn. It may be on of those times where you can barrel all three streets and you may get villian call down and fold river if they are holding KQ, or a club draw.
Hero checks, button bets $7.50, Hero?
Am I ever good here?
If button likes to bluff a lot, possibly, or maybe he is just betting based on how you played it. On button he is probably raising any ace, but could also have things like KQ, KT or a smaller pocket pair. The way you played the hand kinda says that you don't have an ace and don't have a jack so he could be taking a stab at the pot. I'm a fish so I'd probably call to look him up since you can potentially win $20.75 for $7.50, but the proper play is probably a fold. I have a feeling though that you were probably ahead on the flop but the jacks ended up improving his hand.
The thing I see is this. I don't see many Jacks in his 3 bet calling range here except for JJ or AJ and if he has either of those hands so be it. The rest of the hands that he could have either missed their draw (and can't call a shove) or are Ax hands that can't call a shove here either. Maybe AK could talk himself into it.
When he checked behind on the turn for pot control he defined his holdings IMO.
I shipped it and he folded.
Good point about timing wader. I used most of my clock before checking the river and then shoved quickly over his bet. =D
I also think he snap calls if I lead the river with any reasonable sized bet